Aussie PM's ruling coalition tipped to lose in May 21 polls

SYDNEY • Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's government could lose the federal election to be held on May 21, according to a poll yesterday, even as it showed him consolidating his position as the country's preferred leader on the first day of campaigning.

A Newspoll survey conducted for The Australian newspaper showed Mr Morrison gaining a point to 44 per cent, while opposition leader Anthony Albanese fell three points to 39 per cent - the largest lead the Prime Minister has held over his rival since February.

But the poll said Mr Morrison's conservative Liberal-National Party coalition, which has a one-seat majority in the Lower House of Parliament, could lose 10 seats to Mr Albanese's centre-left Labor in a campaign set to focus on cost-of-living pressures, climate change and questions over the major parties' competence.

A separate survey for the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper yesterday predicted that the ruling coalition could lose at least 14 seats, including some previously deemed safe in resource-rich Queensland and Western Australia states.

A win for Labor would see it back in power for the first time since 2013.

All 151 seats in the Lower House will be up for election.

Mr Morrison's coalition holds 76 seats and Labor has 68 seats. Seven seats are held by minor parties and independents.

Mr Morrison kicked off his election campaign from the marginal seat of Gilmore in New South Wales - a narrow Labor gain from the Liberal Party in the last election in 2019 - as he prepares to spend six weeks on the road before the vote.

"This election... is about a choice," Mr Morrison said during a media briefing yesterday, describing Mr Albanese's leadership as "untested and unknown".

"It's a choice between strong economic management and strong financial management... that contrasts to a Labor opposition who Australians know can't be trusted to manage money."

Mr Albanese dismissed Mr Morrison's attacks on his experience as a leader, saying he was "ready to govern", but fumbled answers to questions from reporters about Australia's interest rates and jobless numbers. "The national unemployment rate at the moment is, I think it's 5.4 per cent... sorry, I'm not sure what it is," Mr Albanese said at a media conference in Tasmania.

Australia's unemployment rate dipped to 4 per cent in February, several months ahead of central bank forecasts as the economy rebounds, and looks certain to fall into the 3 per cent range for the first time since the early 1970s.

Mr Albanese also skirted questions on the key interest rate that banks charge one another for overnight loans. Known as the bank rate, or cash rate, it stands at 0.1 per cent.

Asked similar questions later, Mr Morrison gave the correct figures.

Mr Albanese said shortly afterwards: "Earlier today, I made a mistake. I'm human.

"But when I make a mistake, I will fess up to it and I will set about correcting that mistake. I won't blame someone else. I will accept responsibility. That's what leaders do."

He told Channel Seven: "We saw a government only concerned about cost of living only until the election."

Within hours, a Liberal Party advertisement on Facebook replayed a video of the opposition leader's gaffe, with the punchline: "It won't be easy under Albanese."

Multiple surveys show that the cost of living, with fuel prices soaring since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a key concern ahead of the election.

Mr Morrison has been touting his government's handling of the economy after the emergence of the coronavirus and a faster rebound helped by the lifting of most Covid-19 curbs despite the threat from the Omicron variant.

Recovery has also been boosted by surging prices for natural resource commodities, of which Australia is a major exporter.

Just weeks out from the election, Australia's Pacific neighbour, the Solomon Islands, is on the brink of signing a security deal with China, a sign of just how complicated the region is expected to get for the next prime minister. China is Australia's largest trading partner but in the past few years their relationship has deteriorated rapidly.

Whoever wins will have to face a complicated relationship, with trade restrictions still in place on Australian exports to China.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, REUTERS, BLOOMBERG