As Trump cools US-India ties, Modi warms to China and Russia

WASHINGTON – Images this week of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping seemed to confirm what many experts have already concluded – the US has stumbled in its effort to draw India into its diplomatic orbit.

Successive US presidential administrations have sought to cultivate the historically non-aligned India as a strategic counterweight to China and Russia.

But as

the images of Mr Modi in Tianjin

underlined, US President Donald Trump appears, for now, to have undercut that goal with a series of actions. These included

piling 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods

and publicly browbeating New Delhi over what his administration sees as opportunistic

purchases of cheap Russian oil.

The souring of the India relationship comes even as US adversaries China, Russia and North Korea have tightened their ties, despite Mr Trump’s desire to reset relations with each of them.

On Sept 3, the leaders of the three countries appeared together in public for the first time at an event to mark the end of World War II.

Mr Modi, in a signal to Mr Trump, is showing a willingness to boost rather than reduce ties with Moscow, and to look past his suspicions of Beijing.

“I fear we are locked into a long downward spiral because neither leader is willing to pursue the personal outreach necessary to repair the relationship,” said Mr Ashley Tellis, who served in the White House under former Republican president George W. Bush and is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank. 

“The problem now is Trump’s deepening grievances against India,” he said.

“He may change his mind down the road, but presently the imperative of securing a trade deal with China trumps all other geopolitical considerations.”

Indian officials have been rankled by having their trade proposals rejected, and their arch-rival Pakistan honoured by Mr Trump, with slights compounded by

the US leader claiming credit

for resolving decades-long tensions between the South Asian neighbours, which India regards as a bilateral affair.

Ms Tanvi Madan, an India specialist at the Brookings Institution, said US criticism of Mr Modi’s meetings with Mr Xi and Mr Putin struck Indians as odd just weeks after Mr Trump rolled out the red carpet for the Russian leader, and given the US leader’s own plans to meet Mr Xi. 

“That criticism and pressure on India isn’t going to sway India from seeking strategic autonomy; it is going to reinforce that instinct,” she said.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Mr Trump’s foreign policy record “is unparalleled because of his uncanny ability to look anyone in the eye and deliver better deals for the American people”, including brokering an India-Pakistan ceasefire.

“President Trump and Prime Minister Modi have a respectful relationship, and teams from both the United States and India remain in close communication on the full range of diplomatic, defence and commercial priorities in our strategic partnership,” she said.

India’s Foreign Ministry did not respond when asked for comment.

An Indian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Trump administration’s narrative on India, including recent comments by Trump advisers, was unjustified, but Delhi continues to engage with it. The official said the thaw with China has been happening since October and is not targeted at the US. 

China versus India

Mr Modi’s improving relations with Mr Xi are especially striking given longstanding Sino-Indian tensions and sometimes outright hostility, including a military clash on their disputed border in 2020. His trip to China was his first in seven years.

Mr Trump’s recent attacks have thrown assumptions of a mutually beneficial US partnership with India into the air, with his “America First” approach often hitting Washington’s major partners and allies harder than its traditional geopolitical adversaries.

“We get along with India very well, but India, you have to understand, for many years it was a one-sided relationship,” Mr Trump told reporters on Sept 2, reprising a theme he has raised multiple times in recent weeks.

China, India and Russia are all original members of the Brics, a group Mr Trump has

dubbed “anti-American”.

Another Brics nation, Brazil, which like India has been an important US partner, has also been targeted by Mr Trump, facing stiff tariffs and accusations that it is pursuing a “witch hunt” against his far-right ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Referring to the images of solidarity in Beijing, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Sept 1 called it “a shame to see Modi getting in bed as the leader of the biggest democracy in the world, with the two biggest authoritarian dictators in the world in Putin and Xi Jinping”.

Mr Trump’s advisers say the shift in tone is not intended as a pivot away from India, but to speak frankly with a partner.

Risks to the Quad

Mr Trump courted Delhi during his first term, hosting a joint “Howdy Modi” rally in Texas in 2019, and revived

the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad,

that also includes Japan and Australia. 

Mr Modi quickly sought to rekindle ties after Mr Trump’s November election victory, calling to congratulate him within hours, dispatching his foreign minister to sit in a prime seat at the inauguration and launching an account on the Trump-backed Truth Social platform – though he has not used it since July.

But Mr Trump quickly took aim at the trade imbalance and immigration issues.

When

Mr Modi visited Washington

in February, trade was firmly the focus, and they agreed to work towards a limited trade deal by autumn 2025, to expand bilateral trade to US$500 billion (S$644 billion) by 2030, while India pledged to boost US energy purchases.

India has been expected to host a November Quad summit, with a more explicit focus on security vis-a-vis China than previously. But Mr Trump has yet to schedule a trip there, according to a person familiar with the issue.

Doubts about the meeting have come as Mr Trump has set his sights on a major tariff deal with China ahead of a November deadline.

Mr Tellis said: “For now, in Trump’s worldview, there’s no great power competition that requires the Quad.”

Fixing the US-India relationship may require more effort than it took to break it. 

“India is a clear example of a country that for historical, political and economic reasons won’t simply bow down to Trump,” said Mr Brett Bruen, who served as a foreign policy adviser to former president Barack Obama and is now head of the Global Situation Room consultancy. “They’ve got other options.” REUTERS