Coronavirus: Global situation

US nears Delta wave peak but experts remain cautious

WASHINGTON • The latest coronavirus wave in the United States driven by the Delta variant could soon peak, but experts warn against complacency and expect that the virus will be part of everyday life for years to come.

The seven-day-average of daily cases as at Monday was 172,000, the highest in this surge even as the growth rate is slowing and the number of cases is going down in most states, according to data compiled by the Covid Act Now tracker.

But more than 1,800 people a day are still dying in the US, and over 100,000 remain hospitalised with severe Covid-19 - a grim reminder of the challenges the authorities have faced in getting enough Americans vaccinated in the face of misinformation and a polarised political climate.

Johns Hopkins University emergency medicine associate professor Bhakti Hansoti, who is also an expert in Covid-19 critical care, told Agence France-Presse that she saw the US following a similar trajectory to that of India.

Countries in Western Europe have also seen similar downturns in their Delta surges.

But while Associate Professor Hansoti breathed a sigh of relief when the spring wave ended, she admitted: "I'm a little hesitant this time around."

The possible emergence of newer variants of concern and colder weather leading to more socialisation indoors could mean a rebound, "unless we learn from the lessons of the fourth wave", she said.

Virologist Angela Rasmussen from the University of Saskatchewan in Canada said she was not certain that the fourth wave was over. "If you look at the fall-winter wave, there were periods in which there was a steep exponential increase, and then it looked like it was falling - and then there would be another increase."

To ensure gains are sustained, rapidly increasing the number of people vaccinated is vital.

Currently, 63.1 per cent of the US' eligible population over 12 years old are fully vaccinated - 54 per cent of the total population.

This places the US well behind global leaders like Portugal and the United Arab Emirates - 81 per cent and 79 per cent fully vaccinated, respectively.

President Joe Biden's administration last week announced new measures to ramp up the immunisation campaign, including new vaccine requirements on companies with more than 100 employees, but the impact is yet to be clearly seen.

Beyond vaccination, experts want to see other interventions continue.

Surgeon and health policy researcher Thomas Tsai from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health said hot spots need to follow through on masking, adding that the US should also look to countries that have adopted widespread rapid testing for schools and businesses.

Such tests are available free or at a very nominal cost in Germany, Britain and Canada, but are about US$25 (S$33.50) for a two-pack in the US.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration said most federal employees must be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 no later than Nov 22 as it drafts rules to require large employers to have their workers inoculated or tested weekly.

Mr Biden last week signed an executive order requiring federal employees who work in the Executive Branch to be fully vaccinated, with certain limited exceptions.

In guidance to federal agencies posted on a federal website on Monday, the Biden administration said agencies should move "expeditiously so that their employees are fully vaccinated as quickly as possible and by no later than Nov 22".

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, REUTERS

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on September 16, 2021, with the headline US nears Delta wave peak but experts remain cautious. Subscribe