Trump's route to the White House easier: Poll

The latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows Mr Trump has caught up to Mrs Clinton's level of support in several states.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows Mr Trump has caught up to Mrs Clinton's level of support in several states.PHOTO: REUTERS

NEW YORK • Republican Donald Trump appears to have carved out a wider path to the White House as a number of states including Florida and Ohio are no longer considered likely wins for Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, says a poll.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project, released last Saturday, still shows Mrs Clinton would have the best chance of winning the presidency if the Nov 8 election were held today. Yet Mr Trump has caught up to her level of support in several states.

Mrs Clinton now has an 83 per cent chance of winning the election by an average of 47 votes in the Electoral College, which ultimately selects the president. In late August, the States of the Nation estimated that Mrs Clinton had a 95 per cent chance of winning by an average of 108 electoral votes.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters shows an eight-point lead for Mrs Clinton has vanished since the last week of August.

Mrs Clinton is still favoured to win 17 states, including many with large, urban populations such as New York, New Jersey and California that heavily influence the outcome of the election. Mr Trump would likely win 23 states, many of them with smaller populations.

The number of states projected for Mrs Clinton has dropped over the past few weeks. Two of those states, Ohio and Florida, were considered likely wins for her late last month. Now the candidates are about even in support. Five more states are also up for grabs.

The project is driven by an online survey that gathers responses from about 15,000 people per week.

The candidates' reputations have taken a hit, however, as seen from a separate Washington Post-ABC News poll, which shows more than six in 10 voters saying both candidates are not honest or trustworthy.

While the poll shows Mrs Clinton maintaining a lead over Mr Trump, lagging interest among some of her supporters poses a potential turnout challenge for Democrats.

Both candidates' coalitions are united more by antipathy towards their opponent than enthusiasm for their own candidacy.

Fewer than half of Mr Trump's supporters - 46 per cent - say they are "very enthusiastic" about his candidacy, while that figure drops to 33 per cent for Mrs Clinton's supporters.

REUTERS, WASHINGTON POST

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on September 12, 2016, with the headline 'Trump's route to the White House easier: Poll'. Print Edition | Subscribe