News analysis

Calculated pushback by Beijing against Trump?

Senator Ben Cardin said the seizing of a US drone in international waters in the South China Sea was "a remarkably brazen violation of international law". PHOTO: AFP

Several American politicians have reacted indignantly to China's seizing of a US drone in international waters in the South China Sea.

Senator Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told the BBC the incident was "a remarkably brazen violation of international law". The Washington Post quoted senior Republican Senator John McCain as saying that "China had no right to seize this vehicle".

Analysts see the episode as a calculated pushback from China ahead of a new, more bellicose administration in Washington, DC, with Mr Donald Trump assuming the presidency on Jan 20.

"It is a smart and sophisticated way to send a signal. It is difficult for us to respond in kind without escalating this," Mr Harry J. Kazianis, senior fellow for defence policy at the conservative Centre for the National Interest, told The Sunday Times.

The unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) was seized by the Chinese navy last Thursday while collecting scientific data in the South China Sea about 92km north-west of Subic Bay in the Philippines, said Pentagon spokesman Jeff Davis. But China's Defence Ministry said last night that it would return the drone.

The seizure came after Mr Trump had cast doubt on whether his administration would follow the "one China" policy. Under this policy, the US does not recognise Taiwan even though they have close trade ties and the US sells arms to the island.

Several conservatives close to Mr Trump advocate a tougher line on China, and see Taiwan as a natural ally of the US. These include Mr John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the UN; economics professor Peter Navarro; and former Defence Department official Michael Pillsbury.

"Conservatives in DC have been looking for years to push back against Beijing's changes to the status quo, to impose a price," said Mr Kazianis.

Research fellow Ashley Townshend at the US studies centre of the University of Sydney told Bloomberg: "Any changes to (China's) established patterns of maritime behaviour, like Thursday's drone incident, would normally need to be pre-approved - particularly if the new actions are likely to be provocative."

Ms Yun Sun, a senior associate with the East Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, told The Sunday Times that while Beijing has said it would return the drone, "it is hard not to see this as a response to what Donald Trump has been saying about China".

Last Friday, US President Barack Obama avoided responding when asked about the seizure of the drone. But on Taiwan and US-China relations, he struck a cautionary note, saying: "With respect to China - and let's just take the example of Taiwan - there has been a longstanding agreement, essentially, between China, the United States, and, to some degree, the Taiwanese, which is to not change the status quo.

"And that status quo, although not completely satisfactory to any of the parties involved, has kept the peace."

Meanwhile, Chinese analysts told The Sunday Times they did not think the incident was a warning to Mr Trump. Security analyst Wang Xiangsui of the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics said if there was going to be a warning from China to Mr Trump, it would take place after he assumes office on Jan 20.

However, describing the US as "overbearing", he warned that more serious incidents would happen if the US continues with its activities in the region.

•Additional reporting by Goh Sui Noi

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Sunday Times on December 18, 2016, with the headline Calculated pushback by Beijing against Trump?. Subscribe