UN climate goals seem more within reach after recent pledges: Report

Temperature rise could be held to 2.1 deg C if nations keep their word

A 2018 photo of the molten-salt solar thermal power plant in Dunhuang in China's Gansu province. The country has pledged to slash its carbon footprint to zero by 2060. An analysis has found that if this is achieved, it will reduce the end of century
A 2018 photo of the molten-salt solar thermal power plant in Dunhuang in China's Gansu province. The country has pledged to slash its carbon footprint to zero by 2060. An analysis has found that if this is achieved, it will reduce the end of century global warming estimate by 0.2 to 0.3 deg C. PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

The goals of the United Nations Paris Climate Agreement now seem more within reach after recent pledges by major carbon polluting nations, according to a recent report.

In an analysis of new climate promises from China and other countries, along with the carbon plans of United States President-elect Joe Biden, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) group found that the rise in world temperatures could be held to 2.1 deg C by the end of this century if the new promises are kept.

It is still significantly above the 1.5 deg C limit that the UN's climate panel said the world should aim for, but far better than the 3.5 deg C rise the world was on track to reach prior to the Paris deal.

Under the 2015 pact, nearly 200 nations agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 deg C and aim for 1.5 deg C if possible to reduce the risks from a rapidly warming world.

Until recently, the combined emissions-cutting pledges of all countries meant the world was on track to warm about 3 deg C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

While the long-term picture has improved, the authors said it is vital for nations to ramp up emissions cuts this decade as climate-change impacts are being increasingly felt, from more extreme heatwaves, droughts and wildfires to more severe storms and floods.

"We see emissions continuing to rise through to 2030, which will not get them onto the kind of pathway that will allow governments to meet their ambitious net-zero commitments," Dr Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, one of CAT's partner organisations, said in a statement on Tuesday.

What urgently needs to happen is for nations to submit much more ambitious pledges to cut emissions by 2030, the authors added.

In UN language, these pledges are called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). Countries are meant to submit new or updated pledges by the end of this year as part of the Paris Agreement's process of progressively increasing global ambition.

"No large emitter has yet submitted a substantially updated NDC (for the 2030 target), and the emissions gap is huge. Short-term targets are not a little bit off, they are totally off. Near-term action and policies need to be ramped up considerably," said Dr Hare, who helped lead CAT's analysis.

Nations have to submit progressively more ambitious carbon-cutting pledges every five years.

The latest analysis looked at the impact of a flurry of net-zero emissions pledges in recent months.

In a September address to the UN General Assembly, President Xi Jinping pledged that China's emissions would peak before 2030 and would be carbon neutral by 2060 - a dramatic shift for the world's top carbon polluter and coal consumer. Soon after, Japan and South Korea pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050, while Mr Biden's plan is to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

In addition, Mr Biden, who will become President on Jan 20, has pledged to spend US$2 trillion (S$2.7 trillion) over four years on green energy, transport and infrastructure.

The European Union in July agreed to devote nearly €550 billion (S$888 billion) to green projects over the next seven years - the largest single climate pledge ever made.

The CAT analysis found that China's 2060 pledge, if achieved, would reduce the end of century warming estimate by 0.2 to 0.3 deg C. Another 0.1 deg C could be shaved off if the US is carbon neutral by 2050.

South Africa and Canada have also recently announced net-zero targets. In total, 127 countries responsible for around 63 per cent of emissions are considering or have adopted net zero targets, the report noted.

The carbon neutrality goals would mean nations largely shifting away from fossil fuels and dramatically ramping up the use of renewable energy and other clean energy sources.

"I think everyone can be more hopeful that the world can take sufficient measures because of the change in political support for getting to net zero emissions by 2050, with the big caveat that what we're seeing is by far insufficient," Dr Hare told The Straits Times.

"But to retain any credibility, governments will need to bring their 2030 targets into line with their net zero goals by around 2050, and this is the main political challenge ahead in the next 12 months," he said, referring to a major UN climate meeting, called COP26, to be held in Glasgow at the end of next year.

Climate scientists said deep cuts this decade are vital given the planet has already warmed 1.1 deg C and this year is on track to be among the warmest on record.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on December 03, 2020, with the headline UN climate goals seem more within reach after recent pledges: Report. Subscribe