WASHINGTON • Western powers are reluctant to help rebuild Syria after its civil war because they think the wrong side won. Russia and Iran played a major part in that outcome - but they cannot afford a bill estimated at a quarter-trillion dollars.
Enter China?
Mr Qin Yong, vice-president of the China-Arab Exchange Association, said he sees burgeoning interest among Chinese companies.
"We get phone queries every day," he said. "They see huge business potential there because the entire country needs to be rebuilt."
The enthusiasm is reciprocated on the Syrian side, said Mr Qin. "They're like, don't come tomorrow, come tonight."
As the 61/2-year war winds down, with President Bashar al-Assad still in power, the battle for influence in Syria has shifted to the diplomatic arena. Reconstruction, which the United Nations said could cost US$250 billion (S$336 billion), is a key part of it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared victory in his two-year military operation to shore up Mr Assad and is now appealing for international funds. At his annual press conference on Dec 14, Mr Putin showed signs of frustration.
He said Syria, whose conflict sparked the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II, will remain a breeding ground for extremist groups such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria without improved living standards.
"All people of goodwill around the world should understand that if we do not resolve this together, it will be their problem as well," he said.
The United States and its European and Gulf Arab allies, which backed the Syrian rebels, said that problem is largely of Mr Putin and Mr Assad's making. They have eased up on calls for the Syrian leader's immediate departure, but continue to insist that he cannot stabilise the country and has no long-term future.
Withholding money for reconstruction is one of the few cards they have left. Syria has little ability to generate cash internally to pay for its own rebuilding.
Diplomats in Moscow said Russia has repeatedly pressed EU governments to help foot the bill. At the same time, Russia has rebuffed calls for Mr Assad to step down eventually, and his government has shown few signs of willingness to share power.
The European Union, Arab nations and the US put aside US$9.7 billion in April for humanitarian aid and rebuilding Syria. But Mr Assad insists nations which supported the Syrian opposition in the civil war will not get a role in reconstruction, even if they want one.
Mr Abd al-Kader Azouz, a consultant to Mr Assad's government, said money can be found from wealthy Syrians, the Brics group of emerging economies and multilateral lenders not controlled by the West.
A few deals have been reached. Last year, Syria said it had agreed on €850 million (S$1.4 billion) worth of contracts for Russia to rebuild infrastructure. Iran signed accords worth "several hundred million euros" to repair power grids, Press TV reported in September.
Mr Qin's association estimated there could be US$2 billion worth of investment at this stage.
He said the companies he has been escorting to Damascus, Homs and Tartus, including China National Heavy Duty Truck Company, are eyeing projects to build roads, bridges, airports and hospitals and restore electricity and communications.
That may just be the beginning because Syria fits into Chinese strategy. The country was a key link on the ancient Silk Road, and President Xi Jinping's most ambitious plan involves building a new one - the multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to weave a Chinese web of trade and transportation links across Eurasia and Africa.
For all those grand visions, there is an immediate obstacle for Chinese business in Syria, according to Mr Qin: Settlements in dollars and euros are banned because of US and EU sanctions aimed at cutting Mr Assad's regime off from the world economy.
That is one indicator that, without a compromise on Mr Assad's future, Syria is likely to remain partially destroyed for years to come. Professor Robert Ford, who was US ambassador to Damascus during the early years of the war and is now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington and a Yale professor, said the deals mooted so far are a drop in the ocean.
"We're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars," he said. "Syria needs billions. It's going to fall well short of what's needed to rebuild the country, which means that the country won't be rebuilt very quickly."
WASHINGTON POST
