Coronavirus: Herd immunity

Sweden goes from being vilified to being held up as possible model

STOCKHOLM • Sweden refused to impose a coronavirus lockdown last spring, as the country's leading health officials argued that limited restrictions were sufficient and would better protect against economic collapse.

It was an approach that transformed Sweden into an unlikely ideological lightning rod.

Many scientists blamed it for a spike in deaths, even as many libertarians critical of lockdowns portrayed the country as a model.

Back in the spring, when other nations were clamping down, Sweden was often vilified for having gone its own way. Its borders stayed open, as did bars, restaurants and schools.

Hairdressers, yoga studios, gyms and even some cinemas remained open, as did public transportation and parks. Gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, museums were closed and sporting events were cancelled.

But that was the extent of the measures, with officials saying they would trust in the good sense of Swedes to keep their distance and wash their hands.

Some experts believe that Sweden is now almost fully in control of the virus.

Dr Kim Sneppen, professor of biocomplexity at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, said: "There are indications that the Swedes have gained an element of immunity to the disease, which, together with everything else they are doing to prevent the infection from spreading, is enough to keep the disease down."

Indeed, comparative analyses show that Sweden's death rate at the height of the pandemic in the spring far surpassed the rates in neighbouring countries and was more protracted.

Others point out that the country's overall death rate is comparable to that of the United States.

Now, though, the question is whether Sweden's current low caseload, compared with sharp increases elsewhere, shows that it has found a sustainable balance - or whether the recent numbers are just a temporary aberration.

With a population of 10.1 million, Sweden averaged just over 200 new cases a day for several weeks, although in recent days that number has jumped to about 380.

The per capita rate is far lower than nearby Denmark or the Netherlands - if higher than the negligible rates in Norway and Finland. Sweden is also doing far better, for the moment, than Spain, with 10,000 cases a day, and France, with 12,000.

In response to the recent outbreaks, many European countries are imposing new restrictions.

But political leaders, anxious to avoid unpopular and economically disastrous lockdowns, are relying mostly on social distancing measures while trying to preserve a degree of normalcy, with schools, shops, eateries and even bars open.

In essence, some experts say, they are quietly adopting the Swedish approach.

Dr Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health in Geneva, said: "Today, all of the European countries are more or less following the Swedish model, combined with the testing, tracing and quarantine procedures the Germans have introduced, but none will admit it."

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on October 01, 2020, with the headline Sweden goes from being vilified to being held up as possible model. Subscribe