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Feb 5, 2008
Next president could be from ultimate insider club - the Senate
WASHINGTON - FOR all the talk of change and bashing of Washington in this campaign, the next president could well come from the ultimate Washington insiders' club, the US Senate.

That itself would be something of a change.

Only twice before have voters sent a sitting senator from Congress down Pennsylvania Avenue to the White House: Democrat John F. Kennedy in 1960 and Ohio Republican Warren G. Harding 40 years earlier. Never have two sitting senators competed for the presidency as the Democratic and Republican nominees, a possibility this year should John McCain ride his growing lead into the Republican nomination.

While a president McCain, Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama would need to spend no time getting to know Washington, that is no guarantee of peaceful White House relations with Congress or an easy transition.

An ex-senator would take hard-won alliances and friendships with him or her to the White House, points out Mr Julian E. Zelizer, congressional historian at Princeton University. But so too would he or she take built-up animosities.

Neither Mr McCain nor Mrs Clinton in particular should expect a honeymoon.

'The personal back-and-forth would start right away,' Mr Zelizer said. 'I think senators would be very comfortable testing these people in the White House.'

Traditionally, voters pick presidents who were governors, executives adept at budgeting and comfortable issuing commands. This year, the only remaining presidential candidates who have held that job are Republicans Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. They have based much of their appeal on not being Washington insiders but have fallen far behind Mr McCain for the Republican nomination.

While governors can foster images of action, legislators are most often seen deliberating, a skill required for survival in the Senate. The place runs by consent more than rules, which requires the regular practice of rituals that include complex dealmaking, maintenance of fairly intimate relationships, procedural gymnastics and sometimes outright obsequiousness.

Despite their Capitol Hill experience, Mr Kennedy and Mr Harding had difficulty establishing authority over their former colleagues.

Mr Kennedy
Mr Kennedy in particular was young and faced a Congress full of lawmakers who scored better in their own districts than he did during the 1960 election, according to Senate associate historian Don Ritchie. He lost major legislative battles in the first two years.

'The old bulls, the people who chaired the committees, didn't necessarily think they owed Kennedy anything,' Mr Ritchie said. But over two years leading up to the midterm elections, Mr Kennedy 'showed his toughness' - particularly during the Cuban Missile Crisis - that won Democrats a larger majority in Congress.

'Kennedy sort of established the coattails in 1962 that he didn't have in '60,' Mr Ritchie said, referring to an American idea, of a strong presidential candidate's popularity serving to bring members of his party behind into Congress.

Either of the two Democrats could be in for a period of political hazing as president, especially if their former Senate colleagues suspect they used the chamber merely as a step to the White House, some experts said. Mrs Clinton is in her second term; Mr Obama, only in his first.

Mr McCain
Mr McCain, meanwhile, has a carefully maintained image of being a maverick.

Asked on Monday whether he would follow the example of Senate Republican Leader Robert Dole, who left the Senate when he got the Republican nomination in 1996, Mr McCain said, 'Honestly, I have not thought about it.' Mr McCain was not even sure it was the right move for Dole.

'Whether it was right or wrong, I'll leave to the historians,' Mr McCain said, 'But he said he couldn't do his job as Republican leader and run for president effectively at the same time.'

An effective role model for an ex-senator in the White House would be Mr Lyndon Baines Johnson in the first few years of his administration, experts suggested. But Mr Johnson had been Senate majority leader for years before Mr Kennedy chose him to run for vice president. None of this year's aspirants can match that experience.

Mr Johnson
Mr Johnson, a sharp-tongued Texan, took with him his intimate knowledge of the Senate, its members, their flaws and their interests when he became Kennedy's vice president.

As president after Kennedy's assassination in 1963, Mr Johnson used this knowledge to prod his old colleagues into enacting policies Mr Kennedy had been advocating. He won the 1964 election with the widest popular vote margin in history and promptly used those 15 million votes as a mandate to win the enactment of Medicare, the first major government health care programme in the United States.

Even Mr Johnson saw his relations with Congress deteriorate over the bloody mire of Vietnam, for which no legislative skills could compensate. Mr Johnson abruptly withdrew his candidacy in the 1968 election. -- AP

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