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| July 10, 2008 | |
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Bearish outlook takes toll on IPO market
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| Six of the last 10 issues end with losses on debut while funds raised by listings more than halve | |
| By Jessica Cheam | |
| ANOTHER day, another wobbly initial public offering (IPO) in a bearish market that is proving hard going for new listings and nerve-wracking for investors.
The latest hopeful to make its move was local tannery Heng Long International, which hit the market with an IPO price of 34 cents yesterday. Like many others this year, it tanked from the opening bell, falling 12 per cent to 30 cents before plunging minutes later to a low of 27 cents. It then began to defy recent trends and mounted a steady rise throughout the day. The stock hit a high of 35.5 cents before closing one cent above its IPO price, helped perhaps by a robust effort from the broader market. That Heng Long managed to close above its listing price was a welcome surprise, given the performance of IPOs in recent months. Six out of the last 10 offerings have closed below their offer price on Day One and those that made their debuts in the black enjoyed only marginal increases. The situation has left experienced investors querying whether IPOs are such a good deal any more. And those who were successful in obtaining shares must be asking if they would have been better off waiting until the firms listed to buy discounted shares. Some IPO investors have taken heavy hits. Local medical service provider Healthway Medical dived nearly 38 per cent on the first day. Others such as backpack producer China Zaino International fell 20 per cent, Chinese manufacturing firm Combine Will International closed 11 per cent down and Indian real estate investment trust (Reit) Indiabulls Properties slumped 10 per cent. Since then, the Reit has not touched $1 and has fallen 15 per cent. Eight of the 10 firms are still in the red; only two have managed to get their heads above water. It is all in stark contrast to the heady days of last year, when 20 IPOs raised US$2.02 billion in the first six months. The same period this year also had 20 listings, but they could muster only US$967.45 million (S$1.32 billion), or less than half the previous value, according to Bloomberg. Analysts told The Straits Times that the obvious candidate behind the anaemic IPO market was the gloomy market mood. 'IPOs are very much tied to market sentiment,' said Mr Terence Wong, the co-head of research at DMG & Partners Securities. In bad times, it is not surprising that IPOs tend to tank as investors shun the volatile market. Newly listed firms also lack a track record and have a higher risk, which make them less attractive to investors, he added. Another reason is that big institutional investors could be cutting losses by dumping shares the minute they are listed. 'This response is quite expected... if there are no exceptional issues,' said Mr Chan Tuck Sing, brokerage UOB Kay Hian's dealing director. With managers now limiting the number of shares offered to the public, most investors will be from institutions and funds, said Mr Chan. Still, the average investor has a dilemma - whether to buy into IPOs or sit it out and snap up discounted shares on the market. DMG & Partners' Mr Wong believes it is best to look at the firm's fundamentals. If they are strong, investors could consider buying in - and they would have a higher chance of success in subscribing for shares in a weak market. The number of regional IPOs has also dropped, another victim of the market mood. So far this year, 37 IPOs valued at nearly US$20 billion have been shelved in Asia, according to Thomson Reuters. However, analysts like PrimePartners Corporate Finance director Mark Liew think that companies urgently seeking capital for expansion will not be deterred by the market. 'What is happening to the IPO market here is not unique to Singapore. It's happening around the world,' he said. He added that the situation 'can last only for a certain period' and will improve as soon as market sentiment changes. When this will be, is the million-dollar question, he said. | |
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