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May 17, 2008
Petrochemicals fire up Singapore's export rally
Overall non-oil exports rose an unexpected 5.4% despite slump in drugs and electronics
By Alvin Foo
SINGAPORE'S exports rallied last month, easily beating expectations, as petrochemical firms lifted overseas shipments and offset slumping sales of drugs and electronics.

Petrochemicals are chemical products derived from petroleum, and are used in a vast range of consumer and industrial products such as plastics.

The better-than-expected trade data showed that non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) had gained 5.4 per cent to $14 billion since April last year. This was more than double the 2.3 per cent rise that economists had expected.

It was a welcome turnaround from March, when shipments slumped 5.9 per cent year-on-year.

The figures were released yesterday by International Enterprise (IE) Singapore.

HSBC Bank economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said: 'While it would be wrong to suggest that Singapore is seeing a strong export performance, the sector is hardly collapsing in the way many doomsayers predicted.

'Ongoing strength outside the United States remains the key prop.'

However, other observers warn that the road ahead remains cloudy.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said: 'The real test will come in the second half of the year, when the pinch from higher energy and raw material costs will be felt more acutely.'

Non-electronic Nodx, which includes petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals, climbed 9.8 per cent to $8.3 billion after slumping 4.3 per cent in March.

IE Singapore attributed the rebound to 'higher domestic exports of petrochemicals, pumps, metal manufactures, and parts for tractors and motor vehicles'.

Pharmaceuticals sank 11.7 per cent to $1.3 billion after plunging 34.1 per cent in March.

Mr Prior-Wandesforde said: 'The biggest surprise in this release was the failure of the sector to show a much stronger improvement.'

He said the slide in pharmaceutical exports came after a 108 per cent growth in the output of these products in March.

In contrast, petrochemical exports grew 15.2 per cent to $1.2 billion - the strongest increase in seven months - overturning an 11.8 per cent slump in March.

But the same could not be said of electronics shipments. They declined 0.4 per cent to $5.7 billion in their 15th straight drop after an 8.5 per cent retreat in March.

The main reason was lower domestic exports of telecommunications equipment and consumer electronics.

UOB economist Ng Shing Yi said: 'We expect the weakness in electronics exports to continue until the second half, when a nascent recovery could come into play as US consumer demand begins to recover.'

While exports to the US and Thailand declined, Nodx to the rest of Singapore's top-10 markets increased last month. Key contributors to this growth were the European Union, China and Indonesia.

Sales to the EU rose 17 per cent after dropping 24 per cent in March. The growth came from gains in telecoms equipment, metals and pharmaceuticals.

Likewise, exports to China jumped, by 19 per cent, after shrinking 6.3 per cent last month, because of stronger sales of personal computers, petrochemicals, and plastic plates and sheets.

However, exports to the US plunged 17 per cent after sliding 28 per cent in March.

Mr Song noted: 'April marked a decent start to the second quarter, showing that regional demand remains on an even keel despite uncertainties brought about by elevated energy and commodity prices.'

alfoo@sph.com.sg

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