There are a few foregone conclusions: The Barisan Nasional is widely expected to retain its two-thirds majority in Parliament and Umno, the linchpin of the coalition, will continue to dominate politics there.

Based on independent polls - a relatively new phenomenon in Malaysia - the outcome of the 12th general election since independence in 1957 will also reveal a polarised country because the voting is expected to be along racial lines.

That, in turn, will severely test Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's mettle in managing the competing interests of Malaysia's different communities.

South-east Asia Correspondent Leslie Lopez looks at some possible post-election scenarios and their implications:

BEST-CASE SCENARIOS

STATUS QUO PLUS

THE Barisan Nasional (BN) comfortably retains its two-thirds majority, retrieves Kelantan from the opposition Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and quells the opposition tide in the Chinese-dominated urban areas.

IMPLICATION: Datuk Seri Abdullah will have a free hand to push ahead with his economic reforms, purge his Cabinet and inject fresh blood, and pursue a clean-up in patronage-driven Umno.

The Malaysian stock market will rally in the short and medium term.

STATUS QUO

THE BN retains its two-thirds majority, but fails to win back Kelantan. The opposition secures around 30 seats in Parliament, up from 20 seats in the previous election.

IMPLICATION: Datuk Seri Abdullah will only be able to chip away at the margins in his efforts to reform Malaysia's political and economic landscape. His position as Umno president will be secure, but he will not be able to rein in the party's powerful warlords.

Impact will be relatively neutral for the Malaysian stock market.

WIDELY EXPECTED OUTCOME

THE BN retains its two-thirds majority and the opposition captures 40 parliamentary seats in mainly non-Malay areas. The Malay votes stay with Umno and PAS clings on to Kelantan.

IMPLICATION: Datuk Seri Abdullah's position as Umno president would not be under any immediate threat. But the prickly question of race relations will dominate his agenda.

WORST-CASE SCENARIOS

BAD

THE BN keeps its two-thirds majority but the opposition secures more than 50 seats in Parliament, retains Kelantan, and makes huge inroads in Terengganu and Penang, together with scattered victories in parliamentary seats in Malay-belt states.

IMPLICATION: An election outcome that would represent a bloody nose for the Abdullah administration. Datuk Seri Abdullah's position as Umno president would be shaky.

Investor sentiment towards Malaysia and the stock market would be hit because the government would not be able to carry out tough reforms.

VERY BAD

THE BN barely retains its two-thirds majority, with the opposition keeping Kelantan, recapturing Terengganu, and wresting control of Datuk Seri Abdullah's home state of Penang. Umno also suffers serious setbacks in the Malay-dominated states such as Kedah and Perlis, because of internal party strife.

IMPLICATION: Datuk Seri Abdullah's position as premier and Umno president would be extremely tenuous and Malaysia could be in for a leadership change before the year is out.

Investor sentiment would be negative and the Malaysian stock market would suffer a sharp selldown.