His main challenge in the polls early next month will be to convince the electorate that he possesses the political will to push ahead with his promises to curb corruption, pursue tough economic policies and repair frayed ethnic relations.

'There is a big debate out there whether he can deliver,' says Professor Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, who teaches sociology at the National University of Malaysia.

Still, political analysts like Prof Shamsul believe that the cynics would not be able to cause any serious damage to the multiracial Barisan Nasional, which Datuk Seri Abdullah leads.

That is because there is no single issue or a combination of grievances powerful enough to trigger an anti-establishment wave that will prompt Malaysians to abandon Barisan Nasional, also known as the National Front, in droves.

Political analysts say the widely publicised concerns of racial tensions are exaggerated and the higher cost of living has not hurt Malaysians as much as the Indonesians and Thais.

Even the sensational revelations in the ongoing Royal Commission inquiry into alleged corruption in the judiciary have not provoked any major public outcry.

Analysts note that the issues trumpeted by the opposition represent nothing more than a lightning rod for political attention. These issues will not necessarily translate into votes against the government.

'Unlike 1999, this election isn't a referendum on Abdullah or the National Front,' says Mr Manu Bhaskaran, a senior partner with Centennial Group, a US-based economic consultancy.

The elections in 1999 were widely perceived as a referendum on former premier Mahathir Mohamad's rule.

At the time, public disenchantment towards Tun Dr Mahathir had peaked because of his sacking and subsequent imprisonment of Malaysia's then deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim.

As a result, Barisan Nasional suffered its worst setback in decades because of the sharp erosion of support from the country's dominant ethnic Malays.

When Tun Dr Mahathir removed himself from the scene by handing over power to Datuk Seri Abdullah in late 2003, the anti-establishment sentiment quickly turned.

The Malaysian electorate flocked back to Barisan Nasional in the March 2004 elections, giving Datuk Seri Abdullah a record victory of 90 per cent of the seats in Parliament.

This time, no one expects a repeat performance by Barisan Nasional, which is led by the United Malays National Organisation (Umno).

But political analysts and opposition politicians say that the ruling coalition will easily retain a two-thirds majority in Parliament, the minimum figure required to enact changes to the country's Constitution.

The erosion in support will largely be a result of the widely anticipated anti-establishment wave from the country's non-Malays, particularly the economically powerful Chinese community.

The Chinese, who have traditionally swung between voting for the government and then against the establishment in successive elections, have postponed their anti-government ballot in the last two national polls.

In 1999, when Barisan Nasional grappled with a sharp split among the Malays, the Chinese solidly backed the government for fear that the Muslim opposition party, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), would make sharp inroads into mainstream politics.

In the last elections, the Chinese, like most Malaysians, backed the government in the hope that Datuk Seri Abdullah would deliver on his reform pledges.

Politicians from the Malaysian Chinese Association, the most senior Chinese-based party in Barisan Nasional, acknowledge that large sections of the community could turn their backs on the government this time round in favour of the opposition Democratic Action Party in the urban areas and Penang.

Analysts also say that Umno is expected to face a stiffer contest from PAS in the Malay-belt states - Kedah, and the east coast states of Terengganu and Kelantan.

But Umno leaders say they have a strategy to counter the anticipated anti-establishment swing among the Chinese and the stronger showing by the opposition in the Malay heartland.

'If there is a silver bullet in this coming elections, it will be sweeping changes among candidates, and that will show that the government is serious about reform,' says a senior Umno official close to the Premier.

At best, the opposition led by PAS will be able to retain control of Kelantan and make fresh inroads into Terengganu and Kedah.

DAP and Datuk Seri Anwar's Parti Keadilan Rakyat hope to establish a presence in Penang and Sabah, states which have sizeable Chinese populations.

Should the opposition make serious inroads into the Malay heartland and Penang, Datuk Seri Abdullah could be in for a tough time.

A stronger opposition will make it difficult for him to push ahead with his reform agenda.

Electoral setbacks, particularly in the Malay heartland, would also weaken his grip over Umno.

Some analysts fear that a weaker showing by Barisan Nasional could touch off a revolt within the party against the Premier when Umno holds its own elections later this year.

'Should Umno lose significant ground with the Malays, the forces against Abdullah, like Mahathir, will take the opportunity to strike back,' says a close associate of the Prime Minister.

'In that sense, this election is a big gamble for him.'

ljlopez@sph.com.sg