In late November, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani took command of Pakistan's army after longtime military ruler Pervez Musharraf resigned as army chief and became a civilian president.

The Pakistani army has dominated the country for decades, and the army chief wields enormous influence. Over time, as Gen Kayani gains firmer control of the army, he is likely to become even more powerful than Mr Musharraf himself.

'Gradually, Gen Kayani will be the boss,' said Mr Talat Masood, a political analyst and retired general.

But within weeks, Gen Kayani's loyalties - and skills - are likely to come under intense strain. The two civilian political parties which oppose Mr Musharraf are vowing to hold nationwide street protests if the President's party wins delayed parliamentary elections scheduled for Feb 18.

The parties already accuse Mr Musharraf of fixing the polls. If protests erupt, Gen Kayani will have to decide whether to suppress them.

What he decides will determine who rules Pakistan and whether the country descends into even deeper turmoil, according to Pakistani and American analysts.

They predict that Gen Kayani will remain loyal to Mr Musharraf to a certain extent.

'He is loyal to Musharraf to the point where Musharraf is a liability and no longer an asset to the corporate body of the Pakistani military,' said Mr Bruce Riedel, a former CIA and White House official who is an expert on Pakistan.

Gen Kayani's appointment was popular among army officers, some of whom blame Mr Musharraf for hurting the army's image.

As Mr Musharraf's political problems intensify and Pakistan's instability grows, Gen Kayani has emerged as an increasingly important figure to the Bush administration.

Gen Kayani's personal views are difficult to discern. Since taking command, he has continued his practice of never granting interviews. In meetings, he is known to listen intently but rarely speaks.

He is so soft-spoken that a former US official complained he mumbled. But the official was also confident in Gen Kayani's ability to lead the army in the fight against militancy.

In his first act as army chief, Gen Kayani declared 2008 the 'year of the soldier', an attempt to improve the weakening army morale.

His early political moves as army commander included two small gestures that were interpreted as attempts to ease simmering tensions between the government and civilian opposition parties.

After the assassination of Ms Benazir Bhutto on Dec 27, he sent soldiers to place a wreath on her grave and met her husband privately.

And, last Thursday, he led the first meeting of corps commanders - the generals who dominate the military. It was the first time in eight years Mr Musharraf did not attend.

NEW YORK TIMES