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Sep 2, 2008
Olympian election headache

CHINA - Hong Kong's bedraggled democracy camp could suffer a bloody nose when voters head to the polls on Sunday, as pro-Beijing parties bathe in a post-Olympic glow, politicians and analysts said.

The success of the Beijing Games - reinforced in recent days by a well-timed publicity tour by China's army of gold medallists - has fuelled flagwaving and national pride across the territory.

And the feel-good factor could translate to the strongest showing for pro-Beijing politicians since Hong Kong was handed back to China by colonial power Britain in 1997.

'Nationalism and patriotism are precisely the ideologies that pro-Beijing groups want to promote. It's easy for people to associate the Olympic victories with these parties,' said Dr James Sung, a political analyst at City University.

The effect could be compounded by the strong grassroots work of pro-China parties, a lack of resources and the retirement of some democratic heavy-hitters, including figurehead Martin Lee.

In addition, their biggest electoral asset has been cleverly undermined after Beijing said last year full universal suffrage could be introduced in stages from 2017.

'This was a major issue in the past,' said Mr Ivan Choy, a politics expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

'But people are now focusing more on their living standards and their economic situation and democrats do not have major differences (with) the pro-China parties.' Polls show several high profile democrats could be vulnerable, including former journalist Emily Lau, the first woman elected to the legislature in 1991.

'Of course the pro-Beijing parties have the Olympics and they have the gold medalists. All these things provide a feel-good factor,' said Ms Lau, who also blamed her predicament on a lack of media exposure.

'It is quite a loopsided game.' Hong Kong was promised universal suffrage for both its legislature and chief executive as part of Britain's handover deal, but no specific timetable was set and a complex system of appointed, elected and part-elected officials remains.

All 60 of the city's legislature seats are up for grabs on Sunday, with 30 of the seats representing various business and industry interests chosen by small electorates.

The remaining 30 are chosen by universal suffrage to represent various parts of the territory.

Pro-democracy politicians currently hold around 25 of the 60 seats and would lose the ability to veto government legislation if that number fell below 21, a crucial safeguard against previous attempts at constitutional reforms.

The situation comes despite the plummeting popularity of the city's chief executive Mr Donald Tsang, who secured a second term last year in a separate election decided by an elite of 800 mainly pro-China figures.

Mr Tsang's government has been under siege for a string of blunders, including the bungled appointment of a new layer of highly-paid political operatives, and for the spiralling cost of living.

While democratic parties have traditionally done well when the city's Chief Executive has been unpopular, they appear unable to take advantage this time, with analysts blaming a failure to build a wider platform.

'After 15 years or so of forlornly insisting that the Communist leaders of a one-party state grant universal suffrage to seven million of their subjects, the party is faded, irrelevant and a big yawn,' said Hong Kong political blogger Hemlock, bemoaning the Democratic Party's failure to take on the city's tycoons. -- AFP

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