THE long economic winter of a steeply worsening recession may be over, but the spring of a true recovery could still be a while away.

Although 'green shoots' are increasingly surfacing around the world, so are the 'brown weeds' that threaten to delay a rebound, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Thursday in its quarterly economic survey of Singapore.

Scattered signs have emerged that the global economy may be coming out of recession, including the strong rallies in stock markets as investors jump on the bandwagon. But these signs have been interspersed with other indications that the downturn continues to bite, it said.

So while Singapore has probably seen the bottom of its worst recession, 'what we do not know is whether we're going to stay at the bottom for a bit longer, or whether we're going to start having a decisive rebound', said MTI's Second Permanent Secretary Ravi Menon.

When asked which scenario was more likely, he added: 'We can't tell at this point. The signals are really mixed.'

In the light of the still uncertain environment and 'significant downside risks', such as a possible worsening of the Influenza A (H1N1) situation, the Government on Thursday maintained its forecast of the economy shrinking by between 6 per cent and 9 per cent for the full year.

If a recovery starts in the third and fourth quarters, the contraction will be limited to about 6per cent. But if the economy bottoms out and stays at that level in an L-shaped trajectory, the contraction will come in closer to 9 per cent.

Most private-sector economists are also keeping to their current forecasts for full-year growth, although they are more optimistic after yesterday's news that the economy did better than expected in the first quarter.

UOB economist Chow Penn Nee said the improved numbers 'give more room for an upgrade in our full-year forecast', though she is sticking to her tip of -7.5 per cent for now.

'The outlook certainly seems less sombre and we are probably past the worst in terms of rate of decline,' she said. But external demand from the United States and Europe has not returned, and export and manufacturing data has 'yet to show a conclusive recovery' although it has stabilised.

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fiochan@sph.com.sg