DESPITE speculation that the Singapore economy could get much worse, economists here do not expect growth to be lower than what the Government has already predicted for the year.

A poll of 20 economists and analysts by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in February showed that they have downgraded their forecast for growth this year to minus 4.9 per cent from minus 2.2 per cent last December.

This is right at the low end of the Government's forecast for the economy to shrink between 2 and 5 per cent this year.

Both Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew have warned that the economy could shrink by much as 8 per cent and 10 per cent respectively if exports continue to crash.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said: 'It's still anyone's guess. For now we are keeping our fingers crossed that the second half, especially the fourth quarter of the year could see the rate of contraction narrowing to close enough to zero, perhaps even positive, which could narrow the full year growth figure.'

Mr Song noted that only the January data has been released so far. There will be more clarity on the direction the economy is heading in when export data for February is released on Tuesday.

The economists expect the economy to contract 8.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year, down significantly from their earlier forecast of 3.4 per cent in December.

For next quarter's growth, they expect the pace of contraction to slow to 6.9 per cent, and then to 4.6 per cent in the third quarter, before rebounding 0.5 per cent in the last quarter.

Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: 'There is some sense of stabilisation in the economy, but how much weight you want to put on a bottom for growth rates is a question mark.'

'In the past few months, we have seen a destocking process. Companies had overshot, so there has been a short-term rebound in production. But the sustainability of demand in the United States is still questionable.'

For the first time, the survey also revealed economists' preliminary predictions for 2010. They expect the Singapore economy to rebound to 3.3 per cent growth next year.