The first hint of such a formula being worked out behind the scenes, to at least temporarily defuse Thailand's dangerously volatile political crisis, has emerged in recent days.

Referring to a phone-in planned by Thaksin from overseas to address his supporters at a rally in Bangkok on Dec 13, People Power Party (PPP) MP Pracha Prasopdee told the daily The Nation: 'Just carefully monitor Thaksin's phone-in...and see what will happen on Dec 25 when someone is supposed to arrive by a Thai (Airways) flight from Hong Kong to Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport at 9.45am.'

Separately, a well-placed source told The Sunday Times that Pojaman may return as early as this week, appear before a court where she has pending charges against her, and be granted bail.

Thailand's criminal court on Friday accepted a 130-page appeal against a separate previous conviction of tax evasion against her.

Thaksin could follow about a month later - sometime around Christmas - and submit himself to arrest and a jail term, under the two-year sentence handed down to him in absentia a month ago over a conflict of interest charge.

But it is believed a general amnesty will be announced by the government under a royal decree after he is jailed, under which prisoners nationwide will have their sentences lifted or halved. This sort of amnesty is not an uncommon tradition in Thailand.

Under such a scenario, in effect, Thaksin would have to serve only a few months in jail.

His jail term would mean that he complies with Thai law, drawing some of the sting from the criticism of the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which has been demanding his extradition to face Thai justice, among other things.

Mr Pracha appeared to allude to this formula when he reportedly told The Nation he saw no reason why Thaksin would not be willing to serve time in jail.

He went further, telling the newspaper that all sides should support an amnesty for rival political camps, allowing the country to make a fresh start.

Separately, Thaksin loyalists are collecting signatures for a petition to the King to grant amnesty to the ousted premier.

If Thaksin serves time in jail, he would have submitted to the judicial process, the source close to the PPP said, rebutting accusations that the amnesty plan would undermine the rule of law.

Another source close to the PPP's inner circles confirmed to The Sunday Times that 'something' was being engineered for the return of the Thaksin couple but cautioned it was as yet a 'trial balloon'.

While the formula is unlikely to resolve the country's deep divisions, with tensions nearing boiling point, public opinion polls show that most Thais want a peaceful resolution to the crisis which has pitted Bangkok's old-money, traditional royalist elites against Thaksin and his network.

The army is reluctant to intervene because, while seizing power would be easy, managing the aftermath would not.

Even with a pardon, Thaksin would not be able to take part in any election for a while because under a 2006 court judgment, he and 110 of his erstwhile colleagues from his former Thai Rak Thai party were held accountable for electoral fraud and banned from politics for five years.

But that does not mean he would not be able to act through nominal party leaders.

His cousin Chaisit Shinawatra, a former army commander-in-chief, was reported at the weekend to be ready to head Puea Thai, a new party that is to be the vehicle for Thaksin loyalists in the event that the PPP is banned for election fraud.

nirmal@sph.com.sg