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Jan 23, 2009
China slowdown to cost A$5b
Chinese slowdown to cost Australia billions: PM
SYDNEY - THE slowdown in the Chinese economy will slash at least A$5.0 billion (S$4.97 billion) from Australia's economy and endanger jobs, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has warned.

Mr Rudd said China's latest growth figures - the lowest in seven years - meant its gross domestic product (GDP) would be US$200 billion less than previously anticipated.

'And that means a massive A$5 billion fall immediately in Australian exports, just because of China alone, and with a consequential impact on Australian jobs,' Mr Rudd said in a speech late on Thursday.

China, Canberra's largest trading partner, buys about A$25 billion in exports annually, including commodities such as coal and iron ore. It provided the motor for Australia's stellar economic growth for nearly a decade.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said the fact that China's growth had slowed to 6.8 per cent in the December quarter was proof the mining boom - which has driven Australia's economy for almost a decade - was coming to an end.

'There will be a very significant impact on government revenues flowing directly from the unwinding of the mining boom, particularly this dramatic slowing of Chinese growth,' Mr Swan said on Friday.

Flagging demand for resources from the Asian powerhouse and other major nations would have a significant impact on Australia's A$600 billion economy, he said.

'A real feature of this global financial crisis, which is turning into a global recession, is the speed (of changes),' Mr Swan said on local commercial radio.

'What we are now seeing in figures for the December quarter throughout the G7 (Group of Seven nations) and now in China and South Korea is a marked correction in growth, which is very sobering and which will have knock-on effects for countries like Australia.'

The comments came as a report suggested the International Monetary Fund was preparing to slash Australia's economic growth forecast for 2009 to almost zero, from its current estimate of 1.8 per cent, issued in November.

IMF Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky told The Australian newspaper the global recession was deepening, despite government stimulus efforts in the world's largest economies.

'The contraction in the major economies in the fourth quarter of last year was as striking and as severe as we have seen in modern times,' Mr Lipsky said.

'Moreover there is no sign the contraction has stopped.' But Trade Minister Simon Crean said near-zero growth was 'not our assessment' of Australia's economy.

'But clearly China is growing slower than we thought, and that is going to have an important impact,' Mr Crean said. 'Australia is still one of the few developed countries to be forecast to be growing, albeit a lot slower than before.'

Mr Warwick McKibbin, a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia board, said the crisis was unusual because it had affected confidence the world over and 'it really could end up anywhere'.

'I have been surprised by just how bad the negative numbers have been,' Mr McKibbin told Dow Jones Newswires.

'China's switch from an export to a consumer demand-led economy has not happened as fast as I had hoped but this is an opportunity for that to happen and I think it will happen, it is just a question of when.' The RBA board will meet for the first time in two months on Feb 3.

Pressure is mounting for a further cut to official interest rates as Australia's major trading partners - China, Japan and South Korea - report a rapid slowdown in growth.

Australia's offical cash rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent, its lowest level since May 2002, following four reductions totalling 300 basis points since September.

The impact of the global slowdown is already being felt in Australia, with the two largest mining companies on the stock exchange, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, recently announcing they will slash thousands of jobs worldwide due to falling commodity prices. -- AFP

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