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Nov 6, 2008
Crisis to top G20 agenda
SAO PAULO - FINANCE ministers and central bank governors from the G20 group of developed and developing nations are to meet in Brazil at the weekend for talks dominated by the global financial crisis.

The event was scheduled months before the crisis exploded out around the world from the United States in September.

But now it is expected the ministers will focus entirely on preparing for a hastily called summit of G20 leaders in Washington on November 15.

The G20 includes the G7 group of the world's seven most advanced economies (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States) plus the so-called BRIC group of key emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China).

The other nations making up the group are: Argentina, Australia, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.

The European Union is also represented by its rotating president and by the governor of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet.

International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn and World Bank president Robert Zoellick will be attending the Sao Paulo meeting, their offices confirmed.

The precise agenda was still being worked out and would be released on Friday, a spokesman for the Brazilian economy ministry, Danielle Zanchetta, said.

Economy Minister Guido Mantega was to brief reporters on Friday, she said, adding that the BRIC countries plus South Africa and Mexico were to hold talks the same day, before the G20 main event.

World Bank officials said Mr Zoellick was to meet a small group of reporters on Saturday to give a short overview of the G20 talks and the global crisis, and would discuss the November 15 summit in Washington.

That summit of heads of state and government was proposed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and organised by US President George W. Bush.

The leaders heading to it have described it as crunch talks on reforming the world financial system.

Broadly speaking, European leaders are keen on forcing greater regulation on the markets, while the United States wants to salvage what it can from its model of free-market capitalism, which has taken a severe beating in the past two months.

White House spokesman Dana Perino this week downplayed the prospect of the summit delivering the 'concrete' changes Mr Sarkozy is pushing for.

'I don't think anybody should expect next week that we're going to walk away and have everything solved', she said on Monday, adding that the Washington gathering was just part of 'a series' of meetings on the issue.

Some analysts were also skeptical that any accord will come of the G20 meetings.

'I'm very doubtful something will happen. There are too many competing interests, and not a lot of these governments want to have their hands tied', said Mr Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at US-based research firm IHS Global Insight.

There remains a sense of urgency among financial policy makers, however, as the world tips into a US-led recession characterised by a credit drought, a consumer clampdown on spending and a fall in commodity prices that looks set to hit emerging economies hard.

Mr Strauss-Kahn, a former French finance minister who faces the possibility of seeing the IMF reformed after the summit, told Le Monde newspaper last week that he feared the second wave of the crisis was about to hit poorer countries.

'In developed countries, the crisis means a fall in purchasing power. In the weakest (countries), it means the risk of famine for some, malnutrition for many and consequences for a whole generation', he said.

Mr Strauss-Kahn said he would propose five avenues to reform the global financial system, with the IMF reasserting a regulating role and taking on far greater powers.

'A world system must be envisaged that is more coherent because it is simpler and more efficient because it is more coordinated', he said.

The grunt work in drafting any overhaul of rules worked out in the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement would be made in Sao Paulo.

But much effort would still need to be expended by presidents and prime ministers in Washington if a compromise accord is to be reached.

Key to the outcome of the G20 deliberations will be the role of US president-elect Barack Obama.

With Mr Bush on his way out, the United States is in a period of transition during which a drastic shake-up of the world's financial pillars will likely not be countenanced - unless Mr Obama signs on to such a reform before taking office in January 2009.

Said Mr Irwin Stelzer, director of Economic Policy Studies for the Hudson Institute in the United States: 'Obama is being kept informed and (the US) Treasury has said they would not make any commitments that will bind him - which is a great way of Bush getting out of making commitments.' -- AFP

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