Electoral prospects: It's number-crunching time

Supporters from the People's Action Party (PAP) (left) stand together with supporters from the Workers Party (WP) during Nomination Day on April 27, 2011.
Supporters from the People's Action Party (PAP) (left) stand together with supporters from the Workers Party (WP) during Nomination Day on April 27, 2011.PHOTO: ST FILE
Supporters of the Workers’ Party (left) and People’s Action Party at Serangoon Junior College on Nomination Day for the Hougang by-election in May 2012. WP has set a long-term goal of 20 opposition members in Parliament.
Supporters of the Workers’ Party (left) and People’s Action Party at Serangoon Junior College on Nomination Day for the Hougang by-election in May 2012. WP has set a long-term goal of 20 opposition members in Parliament. PHOTO: ST FILE

Insight asks what vote share would be a convincing win for PAP, and looks at whether support for WP has shifted. B2-4

With Polling Day confirmed as Sept 11 and a daily feed of candidate introductions, the questions of the day have shifted from pre-election details to electoral prospects.

Insight asks what a convincing victory for the People's Action Party (PAP) would look like, and considers the role of voter groups and local stumbling blocks.

So far, 2015 has seen commemoration of a departed founding father and celebrations of a 50th birthday.

Against this backdrop of arguably pro-establishment sentiment, the PAP has said this SG50 election is about how to keep Singapore special for the next 50 years, as well as getting in place more potential leaders who can help do so. But just how well will the ruling party have to do, in order to claim that it has received the "strong mandate" it is seeking?

 

With the Workers' Party (WP) having set a long-term goal of 20 opposition members in Parliament, we also look at whether broad-based support for the dominant opposition party has shifted.

As for voters, Insight takes a closer look at two groups on either end of the age spectrum. Can the PAP still count on older voters' goodwill, bolstered by goodies such as the

$8 billion Pioneer Generation package - or has that traditional support base started to sway?

 

Meanwhile, many younger voters will be heading to the polls for the first time. What issues are they concerned with, and how deserved is their reputation for seeking political diversity?

Finally, the lens is turned on the Workers' Party - not in Parliament, but at home. Since its electoral victories in 2011 and 2012, the WP has clashed with the Government over three local issues: food centre ceilings, trade fairs, and town council matters. Insight looks at how the disputes have played out, and what effect they might have as the WP defends its seats.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Sunday Times on August 30, 2015, with the headline 'Electoral prospects: It's number-crunching time'. Print Edition | Subscribe