The great paradox about the response of US President Donald Trump's administration to the challenge from China is that it is both overestimating and underestimating this challenge. The overestimation is clear; the underestimation, which is more dangerous, less so.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spelt out clearly his case for overestimation in his speech at the Nixon Library on July 23. "We're seeing staggering statistics of China trade abuses that cost American jobs and strike enormous blows to the economies all across America, including here in Southern California," he said. "And we're watching a Chinese military that grows stronger and stronger and indeed more menacing."