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John McBeth, Senior Writer

What if neither Jokowi nor Prabowo lands a solid margin?

Published on Jun 30, 2014 11:40 AM

In the space of three weeks, Indonesian Democrat Party-Struggle (PDI-P) candidate Joko Widodo has seen his almost unassailable lead for the July 9 presidential election whittled down to what is shaping up to be a nail-biting climax.

Early this month, when he was leading by 10 per cent, it was still Mr Joko's race to lose. But the gap has kept on closing, with the respected Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) now putting him only 0.6 per cent ahead in its latest, unpublished poll.

Two other surveys this month by Lembaga Survei Indonesia and, most recently, Indo Barometer, have Joko hanging on by 3 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively, while a fourth poll gives Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) rival Prabowo Subianto the edge for the first time.

With a general margin of error of 3 per cent, one thing seems clear: It is the 10 per cent of undecided voters who will determine the outcome and, at this point, they are breaking in favour of Mr Prabowo.

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