Malaysia's GDP slows in Q4 but beats market forecast

The dip in inflation to 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter was due to lower domestic fuel prices, although this was offset by higher cost of food and cigarettes.
The dip in inflation to 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter was due to lower domestic fuel prices, although this was offset by higher cost of food and cigarettes.PHOTO: REUTERS

Economy up 4.5% in quarter but central bank warns of challenging environment this year

KUALA LUMPUR • Malaysia's economy lost more momentum in the fourth quarter but grew faster than market expectations, with domestic demand helping to offset slumping oil and commodity prices.

The economy expanded 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, compared with a median forecast of 4.3 per cent in a Reuters poll, and down from 4.7 per cent in the third quarter. South-east Asia's third- largest economy grew 5 per cent last year, slowing from 6 per cent in 2014, but growth was within the government's 4.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent estimate.

The central bank, however, warned that the economy is expected to face a "challenging operating environment in the immediate future".

"Growth will continue to be driven by domestic demand, with some support from net exports," Bank Negara Malaysia said in a statement yesterday.

On the bright side, the current account surplus doubled to RM11.4 billion (S$3.9 billion) in the October-December period from the previous quarter, boosted by higher portfolio and foreign direct investments.

Fourth-quarter growth was partly propped up by improving private consumption, which rose 4.9 per cent, compared with 4.1 per cent in the previous quarter.

That was helped by a dip in inflation to 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter - down from 3 per cent in the previous three months - due to lower domestic fuel prices, though positive sentiments were offset by higher cost of food and cigarettes.

The central bank cautioned that the economy continues to face elevated downside risks as evident in heightened financial market volatility early this year.

"Going forward, although the global economy is projected to expand further, growth is expected to be moderate and uneven," it said.

Capital Economics said in a research note that, despite its above-consensus forecast for the fourth quarter, it is far from upbeat about prospects this year.

"The effects of low commodity prices will continue to feed through into the real economy, curtailing investment in the energy sector, keeping commodity export income weak and hurting fiscal revenue," the research house said in a note.

The ringgit was Asia's worst performer last year, battered by the global crude oil slowdown and uncertainty tied to a corruption scandal involving state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad.

The country's rapidly diminishing surplus could also pose a risk for the ringgit, although the currency has recently found some respite, with a return of foreign capital to ringgit bonds.

The ringgit firmed after the gross domestic product data was released, hitting a session high of 4.1540 against the US dollar.

REUTERS

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on February 19, 2016, with the headline 'Malaysia's GDP slows in Q4 but beats market forecast'. Print Edition | Subscribe