Asset prices vulnerable to big falls, Fed warns as appetite for risk rises

WASHINGTON • A rising appetite for risk across a variety of asset markets is stretching valuations and creating vulnerabilities in the US financial system, the Federal Reserve said in its semi-annual financial stability report.

"Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising," Fed governor Lael Brainard, the head of the board's financial stability committee, said in a statement released together with the report on Thursday. "The combination of stretched valuations with very high levels of corporate indebtedness bear watching because of the potential to amplify the effects of a re-pricing event."

In this environment, prices may be vulnerable to "significant declines" should risk appetite fall, the Fed report noted.

Ms Brainard and the report mentioned losses at banks stemming from dealings with Archegos Capital Management, and the governor called for "more granular, higher-frequency disclosures".

"The Archegos event illustrates the limited visibility into hedge fund exposures and serves as a reminder that available measures of hedge fund leverage may not be capturing important risks."

The Managed Funds Association, which represents hedge funds, took issue with Ms Brainard's remarks.

"It is unfortunate policymakers incorrectly conflate hedge funds with unregulated entities like individuals and family offices," association president Bryan Corbett said in a statement. "Hedge funds are well regulated" by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Near-zero interest rates and massive bond purchases, with the Fed buying US$40 billion (S$53.3 billion) in mortgage-backed securities and US$80 billion in Treasuries every month, have fuelled a search for returns and helped buoy asset prices including those of risky investments such as speculative stocks, cryptocurrencies and high-yield debt. The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index has risen 12 per cent this year.

"The real story here is the tension - if not the glaring contradiction - of the Fed's pursuit of quantitative easing, the aim of which is to lower long-term rates and encourage reach for yield, and their concern that people are indeed reaching for yield," said Mr George Selgin, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, referring to the bond buying. "The Fed could certainly taper its QE activities to counter this risk-taking as the recovery continues."

The report said house price increases have had a positive effect for borrowers by boosting equity.

It also noted that low interest rates have reduced default expectations, and underwriting standards have weakened.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on May 08, 2021, with the headline Asset prices vulnerable to big falls, Fed warns as appetite for risk rises. Subscribe