SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) - The bond market shows traders see just a 10 per cent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Oct 27-28 meeting following weaker-than-expected employment growth.
Mohamed A El-Erian says the odds are 50 per cent for the next session Dec 15-16.
Treasury benchmark 10-year yields held below 2 per cent as investors pushed back forecasts for the Fed move, highlighting the lack of consensus over when policy makers will shift policy. The US added 142,000 jobs in September, versus 201,000 that economists expected, Friday's employment report showed.
"It takes October off the table, but I don't think it takes December off the table," Mr El-Erian said in an interview with Bloomberg following the jobs report. "The Fed has an important communication challenge" to persuade traders not to focus obsessively on the timing of its first move.
As of Oct 2, the odds of a Fed rate increase were about 33 per cent for the December meeting, 41 per cent for the January session and 56 pe rcent for the March gathering . The calculation is based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 per cent after liftoff, versus the current target range of zero to 0.25 per cent.
The central bank needs to amend the way traders view the path for interest rates, said MrEl-Erian, who's a Bloomberg View columnist and the chief economic adviser at Allianz.
"The critical issue for the Fed is not when it moves first;it is the journey," he said. Between now and December, it has to get the market to realize "that this will be the loosest tightening in the modern history of central banks," he said.