SINGAPORE - Global air passenger traffic and air cargo traffic moved in opposite directions in January, according to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (Iata).

While air passenger traffic fell amid more travel restrictions in the wake of new Covid-19 variants and a surge in infections, global air cargo rebounded to the pre-Covid levels of January 2019 as global supply chains rapidly ramped up, according to the data released on Tuesday (March 2).

On the passenger side, industrywide revenue passenger kilometres - a measure of demand - slipped 6.6 per cent compared with December 2020 levels. It was down by 72 per cent compared with January 2019 levels.

In contrast, global cargo demand in January this year, measured in cargo tonne kilometres, was up 1.1 per cent compared with January 2019 and 3 per cent higher compared with December 2020.

Iata attributed the fall in passenger traffic (down 47.4 per cent compared with January 2019) to a deterioration in domestic markets, particularly in Asia.

This January's domestic traffic in China was 33.9 per cent below January 2019 levels. Japan and Australia were down 71.3 per cent and 81.6 per cent, respectively, versus January 2019.

"January's renewed weakness in air travel was caused by new variants of the virus leading to a surge of new Covid cases and governments increasing travel restrictions," the global airline body said.

Industrywide passenger capacity, measured by available seat kilometres (ASKs), was down 58.7 per cent in January 2021 compared with January 2019, after being down 56.2 per cent in December 2020. In seasonally adjusted terms, ASKs dropped by 4.6 per cent month on month.

This was driven by the Asian region, where ASKs were down 15.3 per cent month on month, Iata said.

Industrywide passenger load factors fell to 54.1 per cent in January, a new all-time low for the month.

In short, only 54.1 per cent of airline seats were filled.

"2021 is starting off worse than 2020 ended and that is saying a lot," said Iata director-general and chief executive officer Alexandre de Juniac. "Even as vaccination programmes gather pace, new Covid variants are leading governments to increase travel restrictions. The uncertainty around how long these restrictions will last also has an impact on future travel.

"Forward bookings in February this year for the Northern Hemisphere summer travel season were 78 per cent below levels in February 2019."

It was quite a different - and perhaps more cheery - picture for the cargo side, where a significant rebound in global economic activity, including vaccine distribution, saw global air cargo volumes recover to pre-Covid levels of January 2019 for the first time since the onset of the crisis.

But air cargo capacity - or bellyhold capacity - has not kept pace with the recovery in cargo demand, Iata noted.

"The recovery in global capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, was reversed owing to new capacity cuts on the passenger side," Iata said.

"Capacity shrank 19.5 per cent compared with January 2019 and fell 5 per cent compared with December 2020, the first monthly decline since April 2020."

But the operating backdrop remains supportive for air cargo volumes, Iata added. "Conditions in the manufacturing sector remain robust despite new Covid-19 outbreaks that dragged down passenger demand. The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was at 53.5 in January, indicating manufacturing growth."

Also, the level of inventories remains relatively low compared with sales volumes, which means businesses have had to quickly refill their stocks, driving demand for air cargo services.

"Air cargo traffic is back to pre-crisis levels and that is some much-needed good news for the global economy," said Mr de Juniac.

"But while there is a strong demand to ship goods, our ability is capped by the shortage of belly capacity normally provided by passenger aircraft."

Asia-Pacific airlines reported the highest international cargo load factor at 74 per cent. The region remains the largest market for air cargo, accounting for 32.8 per cent of global market share.