Expect more heatwaves, droughts in India: Report

It forecasts worrying climate change outlook that includes rise in average temperature

A man carrying an air cooler amid rising temperatures in New Delhi on May 27. India's average temperature rose by around 0.7 deg C between 1901 and 2018, a climate change assessment report says.
A man carrying an air cooler amid rising temperatures in New Delhi on May 27. India's average temperature rose by around 0.7 deg C between 1901 and 2018, a climate change assessment report says. PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Casting dark clouds on India's climate change assessment, a government report says the average temperature by the end of this century could be up to 4.4 deg C higher than the 1976 to 2005 average.

India's average temperature, it adds, was already up by around 0.7 deg C between 1901 and 2018, mainly as a result of greenhouse gas emissions.

The report, yet to be released officially by the Ministry of Earth Sciences but available publicly online, lists a host of other potential worrying impacts for the country.

Among them, heatwaves will likely spike in frequency by three to four times, and last twice as long.

A 6 per cent fall in summer monsoon precipitation, a crucial source of irrigation for millions of farmers, from 1951 to 2015 has increased the propensity for droughts. The report warns of a high likelihood of more frequent droughts - more than two events per decade - that will be more intense and widespread by the end of the 21st century.

This first such comprehensive climate change assessment for India, authored by scientists at Pune's Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, adds that these rapid climatic changes will put increasing stress on the country's natural ecosystems, agricultural output and freshwater resources, and also cause greater damage to infrastructure.

The impact of climate change on the availability of freshwater is a "critical area of concern" for India, it states. There is a growing probability of droughts and floods, which will have a detrimental impact on surface and groundwater recharge, posing threats to the country's water security.

"I am extremely worried about the report's prognosis," Mr Nagraj Adve, a Delhi-based climate change activist, said. He is a member of Teachers Against Climate Crisis, a group that seeks to raise awareness about climate change among college and university students.

"It makes clear how certain current impacts, such as sea-level rise in the North Indian Ocean, have clearly accelerated and how they are going to further intensify."

Mr Adve added that the report's prediction of a rise in the intensity of tropical cyclones should prompt greater institutional preparedness to deal with their impact.

  • 4.4 deg C

    The likely average temperature increase by the end of this century versus the 1976 to 2005 average.

    6%

    The decline in summer monsoon precipitation from 1951 to 2015.

Recalling a cyclone which struck West Bengal last month and caused extensive damage and fatalities, he said: "(Cyclone) Amphan has shown that the preparation is uneven across the country."

While India is the third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide globally, its emissions are ranked 140th on a per capita basis.

As part of its pledges to the Paris Agreement on climate change, India promised to ensure that 40 per cent of its electricity-generation capacity will be based on non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

It also pledged a 33 per cent to 35 per cent cut by 2030 in its "emissions intensity" - the ratio of total emissions to gross domestic product - compared with 2005 levels.

Mr Chandra Bhushan, founder of the Delhi-based think-tank International Forum for Environment, Sustainability & Technology, noted that the impacts detailed in the government report, while localised, are linked to a rise in global emissions.

This implies that any attempt at mitigating these changes would require a global effort, which has fallen short of requirements to meet targets set in the Paris Agreement.

He, however, argued that India is positioned ideally to "pole-vault" into a world where renewables have emerged as more competitive than current polluting technologies. This transition is critical because India's emissions risk rising significantly if the country continues its development along the current technology trajectory that is heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

"India is growing at a time when renewables are competing with coal, electric vehicles will compete with internal combustion engines, green buildings will compete with conventional buildings," he told The Straits Times. "I think we have to take this opportunity when in all the critical sectors, we are at an inflection point in technology."

Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on June 22, 2020, with the headline Expect more heatwaves, droughts in India: Report. Subscribe