News analysis

Knockout blow needed to end Muhyiddin-Mahathir fight

Both trying to woo MPs from the opposing camp in an attempt to strengthen their hands

Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has defended the removal of his predecessor Mahathir Mohamad from the ruling Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and signalled that he is ready to fight for control of the government.

"Tun and his followers have chosen to continue working with Pakatan Harapan even though the party has decided otherwise. If that is Tun's choice, I wish him good luck," he said in a statement yesterday.

This comes after Tun Dr Mahathir renewed his commitment on Friday to not only topple his successor but also sack him as Bersatu president.

The feud between the two men has left Malaysia with a dysfunctional government, as both try to woo lawmakers from the opposing camp in a bid to strengthen their hands.

While Dr Mahathir must try to deprive Tan Sri Muhyiddin of a simple majority in Parliament (112 out of 222 MPs), the incumbent needs to increase the number of his MPs to stabilise his administration.

The past three months have been hard on the governing party. Ruling with just 113 MPs and under the strain of dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic has seen the government unwilling to face debate in Parliament.

Respected technocrats and corporate figures at state agencies have been replaced with political appointees to shore up support, while delays have afflicted plans that could help boost an ailing economy, such as the high-speed rail to Singapore.

The latest casualty is the 12th Malaysia Plan, a five-year development blueprint which was supposed to be presented to Parliament in August. The Sunday Times has sighted an official memo revealing that the Cabinet has postponed its tabling to next year despite the 11th Malaysia Plan ending this December.

"Malaysia will continue to be rocked by political instability until one side can garner a clear majority. Otherwise, fresh elections may be the only option," global risk consultancy Eurasia Group's Asia director Peter Mumford told The Sunday Times.

DOING WITHOUT MAHATHIR

Mr Muhyiddin sought rapprochement with Dr Mahathir after being sworn in on March 1. This would have reunited the two factions of their Bersatu and allowed him to keep the five MPs who were eventually removed from the party last week.

Having the former premier by his side would also have brought in the likes of Sabah's ruling Warisan and a few smaller parties and independents allied with the 94-year-old statesman. The strength of Mr Muhyiddin's Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition would have increased to about 130.

That door was slammed shut after Bersatu ousted Dr Mahathir's son Mukhriz as chief minister in the family's home state of Kedah early this month, following Dr Mahathir's push to hold a no-confidence vote against his successor in Parliament. Mr Muhyiddin blocked any chance of this during the unprecedented 45-minute May 18 sitting by ordering proceedings to end as soon as the King finished his annual opening speech.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad (left) is trying to deprive incumbent Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin of a simple majority in Parliament, while Mr Muhyiddin needs to increase the number of his MPs to stabilise his administration. PHOTOS: BERNAMA
Dr Mahathir Mohamad (above) is trying to deprive incumbent Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin of a simple majority in Parliament, while Mr Muhyiddin needs to increase the number of his MPs to stabilise his administration. PHOTO: BERNAMA

Parliament will now reconvene only on July 13, meaning PN will not have passed any Bills for nearly five months since forming the government, despite announcing two recovery packages worth RM35 billion (S$11.3 billion) in total by April 6.

The Sunday Times has learnt that in an effort to secure a greater majority by then, Mr Muhyiddin has dangled the vacant position of deputy premier, which was initially reserved for Datuk Seri Mukhriz in a bid to placate Dr Mahathir.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad (left) is trying to deprive incumbent Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin of a simple majority in Parliament, while Mr Muhyiddin needs to increase the number of his MPs to stabilise his administration. PHOTOS: BERNAMA
Dr Mahathir Mohamad is trying to deprive incumbent Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin (above) of a simple majority in Parliament, while Mr Muhyiddin needs to increase the number of his MPs to stabilise his administration. PHOTO: BERNAMA

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, president of the opposition Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), which has 39 MPs, said on Friday that he had rejected the position when approached, while sources revealed that Sabah Chief Minister Shafie Apdal - whose Warisan party has nine MPs - was offered the same.

"Anwar risks too much if he were to cross over because not only would others in Pakatan Harapan (PH) not follow, even some in PKR might refuse. So Shafie holds the key. If he joins PN, it will lock in Sabah and give Muhyiddin legitimacy," said a source familiar with the negotiations.

Mr Anwar leads the 92 MPs in PH, after the dispute between Mr Muhyiddin and Dr Mahathir left Bersatu's membership of the former ruling coalition in limbo.

PAKATAN HARAPAN-PLUS?

Most PH leaders are aware that they are unable to secure more than 112 MPs unless they affirm Dr Mahathir as their candidate for the premiership. Datuk Seri Shafie and MPs in Sarawak, especially from the ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), are unwilling to back an Anwar administration.

The Sunday Times understands that PH leaders are trying to convince Mr Anwar to make way again - a mid-term handover agreed prior to winning the 2018 election was left unfulfilled when Dr Mahathir was ousted in February. They believe the PKR chief has room to cut a deal, now that his former deputy Azmin Ali - whose faction was favoured by Dr Mahathir - has defected to PN.

"Anwar can demand the four Cabinet positions and control of policies and institutions that were handed to Azmin's camp before," one PH leader said.

If both Mr Shafie and Mr Anwar are satisfied, Dr Mahathir's camp believe they can convince some Bersatu MPs to return, using the founder's removal from the party last week as a reason to turn their backs on Mr Muhyiddin.

But while this could bring Dr Mahathir's support to as high as 118, it would still be dicey as the King could decide that fresh polls are preferable to the instability of slim majorities.

Hence, efforts to bring GPS' 18 MPs over to Dr Mahathir's side will be crucial to ensuring that, if and when Dr Mahathir seeks an audience, the Palace will have no choice but to swear him in for a third stint as premier.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Sunday Times on May 31, 2020, with the headline Knockout blow needed to end Muhyiddin-Mahathir fight. Subscribe