Asian Insider, Oct 31: Trump or Biden: Who’s better for Asia?

Asian Insider brings you insights into a fast-changing region from our network of correspondents and commentators.

Hi all,

In today's bulletin:

Will Trump be better for this region or will it be Biden? And what are the stakes for Asia? Our correspondents in the United States and several Asian capitals have been keenly tracking the elections from an Asian perspective. Read their insights in this special edition of the Asian Insider newsletter.

Reading this on the web or know someone who might enjoy receiving Asian Insider? Our sign-up page is here.

US foreign policy if Trump wins or Biden succeeds

Asia can expect continuity in US foreign policy towards this region if President Donald Trump returns to the White House for another term of four years. But it could be quite different if Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden succeeds.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo might remain in the Cabinet if President Trump wins the elections but Defence Secretary Mark Esper might change. China hawks, among them economic adviser Peter Navarro, will remain in place, writes US Bureau Chief Nirmal Ghosh.

Mr Biden, if he wins the polls, might bring back some of the people from the Obama administration. Among them, it could be former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, who was one of the architects of former President Barack Obama's "pivot to Asia".

On the policy front, under a Biden administration, there could be efforts to "resuscitate" US diplomacy and alliances, and restore what is seen by them as America's dented leadership, in part by re-engaging with multilateral organisations and institutions.

China's view on US elections

Beijing's relations with Washington changed significantly during President Trump's first term in office. And this change could be irrevocable, say analysts, with the hawkish stance likely to continue should Mr Trump get a second chance at the White House.

An important area for discussion though could be phases two and three of a comprehensive trade deal between the United States and China, writes China Correspondent Elizabeth Law.

There is also a sense in Beijing that a Biden administration could bring more to the table, offering cooperation in areas such as climate change and global public health. But some analysts are also concerned that the Democrats could push China on issues like human rights.

Unfinished business in S.Korea & Japan

For a while it seemed that East Asia would be high priority as President Donald Trump pushed his plan to meet Kim Jong Un, in the early years of his administration, to resolve the key issue of denuclearisation. That historic summit took place in Singapore in June 2018.

Beyond that meeting, however, most experts say Mr Trump mismanaged strategic alliances with Japan and South Korea, extracted empty promises from North Korea and failed to curb China. There are hopes that these issues will be taken up by a Biden administration.

US alliances with Japan and South Korea, originally meant to extend US influence in the region and form the backbone of global security, became a mere dollar game when Mr Trump demanded fivefold increases in defence cost-sharing from both allies and pressured them to reduce their trade surplus with the US, write Japan Correspondent Walter Sim and South Korea Correspondent Chang May Choon.

No candidate ticks all the boxes in South-east Asia

Several of the South-east Asian economies have had to carefully manage their relations with the United States and China as the rift between the two economies widened during President Donald Trump's first term.

Experts believe the dynamics will not change significantly. ST Philippines Correspondent Raul Dancel writes that Asean will have to continue navigating a thin middle ground and enhance its defence ties with the US without inviting reprisals from Beijing.

Should Mr Biden occupy the White House, expectations are high that a return to multilateralism will be on the cards. And the US could rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership that could be a boon for Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.

Cosy US-India ties no matter who is in the Oval office

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took New Delhi's relations with Washington a notch higher during President Donald Trump's first term. Now their widening rift with China is expected to ensure that ties between the two could deepen further irrespective of who returns to the White House.

This became further evident as India decided to invite Australia - after years of hesitation - to join the Malabar naval exercises, involving Japan and the US, writes India Bureau Chief Nirmala Ganapathy. All four countries are members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal security forum seen by China as an adversarial grouping.

Still, there are other contentious issues, among them trade and the visa programme, that India and the US will need to take up.

In other news ..

US hits world record of 100,000 coronavirus cases in 24 hours: US set a new all-time high for coronavirus cases in a single 24-hour period on Friday, reporting just over 100,000 new infections to surpass the record total of 91,000 posted a day earlier. The Covid-19 pandemic has killed nearly 230,000 people in the US. Case numbers in the US also passed nine million reported infections on Friday.

Perception of US electoral fraud widespread: US President Donald Trump's rhetoric on the elections being rigged are proving to be effective. Multiple polls have shown that both sides of the political divide believe the other will cheat to win, laying the groundwork for an election result that one side or the other will almost inevitably feel aggrieved at. US Correspondent Charissa Yong reports.

America on edge amid warnings of heightened risk of violence: Across the chasm of the United States' political divide, each side views the other not just as those with different political ideology, but as an enemy. And analysts are warning of a heightened risk of violence during and after the Nov 3 elections, writes US Bureau Chief Nirmal Ghosh.

Click here for more stories and analyses


Thanks for reading the Asian Insider & The Straits Times. We'll be back with the regular bulletin on Monday.

Shefali

Subscribe to The Straits Times to read our premium stories.

Want more insights into fast-changing Asia from our network of correspondents? Get this article in your inbox by signing up here.

Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.