| ST Global forum
  
What lies behind the standoff in Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad's harsh public attacks over policy issues have presented Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's nearly three-year-old administration with its most serious political crisis.

Dr. Mahathir's public admonishment of the Mr. Abdullah's government has put the business community on edge and raised concern that it could trigger a spilt in the ruling United Malays National Organisation, or UMNO, party.

But the deepening rift between the two politicians isn't just about policy differences and personality clashes.

At stake in this gripping political drama is a clash over what values should shape future ethnic Malay/Malaysian society.

Over the last two decades, Dr. Mahathir has aggressively imposed his vision of modernisation on his Malay race with the state playing a central role in economic development.

And to push his agenda, Dr. Mahathir was left with little choice but to adopt a very autocratic style, placing strict limits in the independence of key institutions.

In the process, he created a culture where Malays, and much of Malaysia, identified with a strong leader who could dispense patronage in a protected economy.

The vision Mr. Abdullah espouses is anchored in the thinking of Malaysia's political elite before Dr. Mahathir assumed power; one that places a premium on values such as egalitarianism, democracy and a sense of fair-play.

Mr. Abdullah's reform agenda, which includes bringing more independence to watchdog agencies, and pushing for greater transparency in the police force and the awards of large contracts, clashes directly with thye systems and practices that have been established during the last two decades of Dr. Mahathir's premiership.

That's why this fight isn’t just a clash between the current and former premiers. It also includes wide swathes of Malaysia's establishment that is resistant to
change.

Dislodging Mr. Abdullah, however, won't be easy.

But there are concerns that Dr. Mahathir, Malaysia's redoubtable strongman who has survived numerous challenges to his leadership during his 22 years in power, could inflict some serious political grief on Mr. Abdullah in coming months.

One potentially destabilising issue is political succession in Malaysia.

The 66-year-old Mr. Abdullah and Dr. Mahathir are considered to be from the same political generation, and many UMNO members believe that the next leadership succession, which would pave the way for deputy premier Najib Abdul Razak, should take place sooner to make way for the party next generation of leaders to move up the political ladder.

Several analysts say that Dr. Mahathir's political agitation against Mr. Abdullah would fit in nicely for those seeking to push forward the succession timetable.