After more than a year, investigators appear to have made little headway in unravelling the complex deal, and the PPP has already discussed the possibility of an amnesty for Thaksin. -- PHOTO: AFP

The leader of the pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP), Samak Sundaravej, was voted in on Monday as prime minister and a new government is expected to take office by early next week.

Before the PPP's victory in last month's elections, Thaksin had confidently predicted that he would return home from self-imposed exile in Britain in February, once the new government was installed.

But his wife told a court last week that he would only return in May - a sign of the delicate balance Thaksin needs to strike in taking advantage of his political victory without angering the royalist generals who ousted him, analysts said.

'Even though a PPP-led coalition is taking over, that doesn't mean prime minister Thaksin will return home earlier than May,' Thaksin spokesman Noppadon Pattama said.

'The government will not interfere in any of Thaksin's court cases. We will allow the judicial process to take its course,' he added.

After the military toppled the Thaksin government in September 2006, they named a high-powered team of investigators, called the Assets Examination Committee (AEC), to consider a dozen corruption cases against him.

Charges have been filed in only two of those cases, though relatively minor ones - a dodgy property deal and alleged fraudulent filings at the stock exchange. Trials have not yet begun.

The AEC's mandate expires in June, and Noppadon said the new government will not extend it. Any remaining cases would be transferred to the National Counter Corruption Commission, he said.

So far little tangible progress has been made on the blockbuster allegations surrounding his family's sale of his telecom empire Shin Corp - a deal that sparked mass street protests which eventually led to the coup.

The AEC has been investigating how Thaksin's family managed to earn 2.2 billion dollars (S$3.12 billion) off the sale without paying taxes, and has frozen about two billion dollars worth of his assets pending the outcome of their probe.

Thaksin and his family have denied any wrongdoing.

After more than a year, investigators appear to have made little headway in unravelling the complex deal, and the PPP has already discussed the possibility of an amnesty for Thaksin.

Analysts said an amnesty would be politically difficult to deliver early in the new government's term because it could spark a backlash from the public and the generals who staged the coup.

But Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Chulalongkorn University, said that if the government performs well in its first few months, the generals would find it difficult to interfere.

'Democracy produced this result. This forces them to stay on the sidelines,' he said. 'If the elected government performs adequately, then the military will be increasingly left behind.'

Many Thais are also now more worried about the country's lacklustre economy than about political issues, said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political analyst at Thammasat University.

If Samak's government kick starts the economy quickly, the public may not care how Thaksin engineers his return, he said.

'If they deal well with the economy, people will not care what happens with Thaksin or the party's political agenda,' Somjai said.

Thaksin's purchase of the Premiership football club Manchester City, also gives him a convenient reason to remain overseas for the time being.

With the team in the upper rankings, Thaksin could say he wants to see his club complete its season in May before coming back to Thailand, Thitinan said. -- AFP