FROM DRIVING TO WALKING: Escalating fuel prices may see more Americans choosing to live a 'walkable urban lifestyle'. -- PHOTO: REUTERS

Some experts say the lovely suburbs are destined to wither away, while others hope that higher transportation costs will help revive local manufacturing.

For a country that is the birthplace of the car 'for the great multitude' (Henry Ford's Model T in 1908) and that built one of the largest national highway systems, creating, in turn, the suburbs and 'anywhere, any time, always on the go' lifestyle, it is a cruel blow.

In the 1960s, more Americans lived in the inner city areas and the countryside. But by 2000, the people living in the suburbs had outnumbered those in the downtown and the rural areas combined.

Five years ago, the average suburban household spent US$1,422 (S$1,950) a year on petrol. With petrol prices now over US$4 a gallon, the same household is paying more than double.

One indication of the preference for downtown living is the property prices. For example, as the sub-prime crisis hit, prices of homes in the suburban areas of Washington DC dropped by 15 per cent over the last year.

Can't cope? Just pray FAITH IN PRAYERS: Mr Twyman (centre) leading member of his church in prayer for lower fuel prices in Washington DC. -- PHOTO: AFP GOD bless America - with lower pump prices. This refrain is going up at some petrol stations. ... more

But prices in the downtown areas, like Georgetown or Dupont Circle, stayed flat rather than drop, said Mr Christopher Leinberger, an analyst with the Brookings Institute and the author of a new book The Option Of Urbanism.

He has forecast that more Americans will return to the downtown areas, preferring a 'walkable urban' lifestyle to a 'driveable suburban' one.

'The suburbs, lovely and affluent today, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and 1970s - slums characterised by poverty, crime and decay,' he said.

High petrol prices have 'accelerated the trend', he added.

But he has his detractors, who find the scenario far-fetched.

'People will simply telecommute, work closer to home. If the jobs were in the urban core, that would make sense, but increasingly they are not,' said Mr Joel Kline, an expert on urban economic trends.

'The key is the match between residents and jobs; suburbs that have this, like Irvine, California, will do fine. Those on the far fringe with no employment will suffer,' he said.

Where and how people work is also being challenged by petrol prices. Telecommuters are on the march, with 48 per cent of employers offering an option of telework at least one day a week, shows a 2007 survey.

A more far-reaching transformation could be under way, with the cost of shipping goods from China to the US rising dramatically.

Coupled with the decline in the dollar's value against major currencies (a 30 per cent fall since 2002) and the rising wages in China which have increased the cost of production there, hopes have sprung for a renaissance of American manufacturing.

It may still prove unviable to bring back the factories and make clothes or toys here. But in innovation-driven industries like renewable energy or cutting-edge medical devices, there is a fair chance that American corporations will choose to set up plants at home rather than overseas.

bhagya@sph.com.sg