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OUT OR ON THE MOVE?: Commerce Minister Mingkwan did not manage the rice price crisis well.
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BANGKOK - THAILAND'S government may be assured of weathering an opposition's censure move in Parliament in a vote this morning, but the survival of some Cabinet ministers in the long term remains doubtful.
Chief among those who may be dropped or moved mainly to assuage critics, is Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama, who is also the target of potential impeachment by the opposition for having signed an agreement with Cambodia without parliamentary approval.
Support for Mr Noppadon from some of the ruling People Power Party's (PPP) smaller coalition partners, has eroded over the emotive Preah Vihear temple issue with Cambodia.
If he is axed, he will be the second minister from the Cabinet with strong ties to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to be dropped.
The first was Jakrapob Penkair, who resigned in May under pressure from the government's critics and charged with lese majeste - insulting the monarchy - over a speech made late last year.
Mr Noppadon was a legal adviser and spokesman in Bangkok for Thaksin during the months the former premier spent in self-exile after being ousted in a military coup in September 2006.
The second man expected to be dropped or moved is Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan, who according to speculation in the local media, has been unhappy with poor support from the PPP on policy issues - and has apparently had disagreements with his deputy minister.
Most controversial was his handling of the rice price crisis in which, according to reports, he was unable to navigate diverse pressures from within and outside the government.
Mr Samak - who earlier this month had said that he had no problems with Mr Mingkwan - told Parliament yesterday the minister had overruled his advice on managing the rice price crisis.
The censure debate in which Mr Noppadon, Mr Mingkwan, Mr Samak and five other ministers have been targeted by the opposition, was due to end yesterday evening, with the vote scheduled for this morning.
Most of the PPP's five smaller partners in the coalition yesterday indicated that they would continue to support the government.
But in a warning sign, Chat Thai party leader Banharn Silpa-archa appeared guarded in his support.
The Preah Vihear temple issue has proved to be the biggest stick in the hands of the opposition - whether the Democrat Party inside Parliament, or the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which is staging a sit-in outside Government House.
Mr Noppadon's agreement with Cambodia that Phnom Penh can go ahead with applying for World Heritage status for the temple - with a bilateral dispute over the area around it still unresolved - is seen by many Thais as having compromised Bangkok's sovereignty.
The Democrat Party plans to petition Thailand's Constitutional Court to decide whether Mr Noppadon violated the Constitution by signing an agreement with another country without consulting Parliament.
If the court decides against Mr Noppadon, the party would move to impeach him, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday.
Meanwhile the PAD, whose supporters have been camping outside Government House since last Friday, is waiting for the outcome of the vote on the censure motion, and a separate judgment by the Administrative Court on whether the Cabinet was correct to endorse the agreement with Cambodia last week.
But those outcomes are unlikely to spawn anything more than tactical changes.
The PAD's goal remains the same - to pressure the government which it considers a puppet of former premier Thaksin, with the intention of bringing it down.
In another development in the increasingly acrimonious political battle, Thaksin is reportedly preparing to sue three PAD leaders for defamation - specifically accusations made at its rallies that he is against the monarchy and wants to turn Thailand into a republic.
nirmal@sph.com.sg
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