BLISTERING WOUNDS: An opposition supporter waiting for treatment for severe burns at a Harare clinic on Thursday. Civil rights groups in Zimbabwe say security forces and party thugs loyal to President Mugabe have unleashed a campaign of violence against opposition supporters after the disputed elections on March 29. -- PHOTO: REUTERS

But, as Ms Frazer arrived in Africa on Thursday, she must have known that 'clarity' is precisely the one ingredient Zimbabwe lacks most. A month after parliamentary and presidential elections took place, no official results have been published.

President Robert Mugabe more or less admitted that the opposition won control of Parliament and once even hinted at the possibility of submitting himself to a run-off against Mr Tsvangirai in order to decide who should become Zimbabwe's next head of state.

But, since then, Mr Mugabe's stance has hardened. His officials have ordered a 'recount' of the vote, despite the fact that some of the ballot boxes have since disappeared. And nobody is now talking about another round of presidential voting.

Everything seems to point towards a major, looming confrontation. Supported by the military and the security services, Mr Mugabe believes that he still holds the upper hand.

He may be prepared to offer the opposition a power-sharing deal. But if opposition leaders refuse it, he is determined to crush them with all his might.

This strategy carries huge risks. Mr Tsvangirai, who is now outside the country, has little incentive to accept such a deal; he may order a campaign of civil disobedience against the government.

And Mr Mugabe cannot be sure that, if ordered, his armed forces would fire on demonstrators. In short, both sides are now at a stand-off. The question is: Who blinks first?

The most immediate losers are, of course, the people. No less than 80 per cent of the population is unemployed. And those who manage to find work discover that their salary is pulverised by an inflation rate exceeding 100,000 per cent. Very soon, the title of a 'failed state' will be a compliment for Zimbabwe.

But South Africa, Zimbabwe's key neighbour, also emerges damaged from this episode. For years, Mr Thabo Mbeki, the South African President, has persuaded the world that his 'quiet diplomacy' was more likely to find a solution in Zimbabwe.

While many African governments are beginning to tire of Zimbabwe's leaders, Mr Mbeki continues to claim that there is 'no crisis'.

The result is that Mr Mbeki, who leaves office next year, is increasingly marginalised inside his own country.

However, not everything is gloomy. Zimbabwe apart, large parts of Africa are booming. Sub-Saharan economies are currently growing by 6.6 per cent, and foreign investments and loans have risen from S$14 billion yearly at the beginning of this decade to S$71 billion last year.

So while Zimbabwe remains a disaster, the rest of the continent deserves continued engagement, and offers much hope.

Jonathan.eyal@gmail.com