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TAIPEI - CHINA and the United States were relieved when their preferred choice for Taiwan president, Mr Ma Ying-jeou, won the election on Saturday.
But Mr Ma's request to visit Washington before his inauguration on May 20, which could anger Beijing, has served as a quick reality check for the three parties.
The request, which puts the US in a spot, underscores the tricky issues which could emerge in a changing Taiwan-China-US relationship.
While the election of the moderate Kuomintang (KMT) politician is good news to both China and the US, the long-term prospects are likely to be less rosy, say observers.
Mr Ma, 57, has held out the prospects of cross-strait dialogue and the sealing of a peace agreement with China.
'There would be strategic implications arising from cross-strait dialogue. The influence of the US and Japan on Taiwan would decline,' said Professor Lo Chih-cheng of Soochow University.
The prospects of cross-strait rapprochement - or what some have termed a 'unified greater China' - have rekindled concerns within the US that it could work against Washington's strategic interests, said analysts.
'Washington will be initially pleased with dialogue between China and Taiwan.' said Professor Lin Chong-pin of Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.
'But in the long term, there are fears that Taiwan would move to an equidistant position between Beijing and Washington,' he told The Straits Times.
With the easing of cross-strait tension, there could be less urgency and weaker domestic support within Taiwan to proceed with arms procurement from the US, said some US analysts.
The possible offer of F-16 C/D fighters to Taipei - which could be on the table after Mr Ma's inauguration - could become a point of contention between Taiwan, China and the US.
Others, however, argued that Mr Ma is unlikely to move too closely to China.
'Beijing may have overestimated Mr Ma's Chineseness and perhaps underestimated his Taiwanness,' said Professor Richard Baum of the University of California in Los Angeles.
In fact, Mr Ma may advocate warmer ties with Japan, which would certainly irk China; he has also indicated his interest in visiting Japan before he is formally sworn in. The President-elect, known for his tough stance on Japan's historical aggression, is eager to dispel concerns in Tokyo that he is anti-Japanese.
That would hardly be welcomed by the Chinese leadership, which has so far remained silent over his victory.
Beijing also faces the delicate task of 'rewarding' the China-friendly government without appearing to be too accommodating.
While it is not all rosy for Taiwan's ties with China and the US, some remain optimistic.
Said Professor Alan Romberg of the US think-tank, the Stimson Centre: 'There is an opportunity for improvements along all three legs of the triangular relationship', which should not be seen as competitive.
hwee@sph.com.sg
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