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TAIPEI - THE presidential election in Taiwan this week looks to be the first-ever normal contest for that country's highest office.
For one thing, Beijing has been unusually quiet, perhaps having learnt a lesson from past elections.
During Taiwan's first presidential polls in 1996, China staged missile 'tests' off the island's coasts. Washington dispatched warships to calm frayed nerves, and voters defied China by giving Lee Teng-hui a decisive victory. In 2000 and 2004, China's warnings against voting for Mr Chen Shui-bian were again counter-productive.
Adding to a more normal atmosphere this year are two moderate presidential contenders.
Both Mr Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Mr Frank Hsieh of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) advocate broadly similar domestic policies and more conciliatory relations with China.
But don't be fooled by appearances.
No presidential election in Taiwan is routine. Every election in Taiwan, especially a presidential one, is an inconvenient bulletin to the outside world.
The elections affirm a democratic society of 23 million people, fully self-governing and deserving to participate in international affairs despite their diplomatic isolation.
What has most stirred international attention this year is not the election itself, but two referendums on Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations. These are scheduled for a vote simultaneously with the presidential polls.
Beijing has opposed these referendums, which ask for approval to use the name 'Taiwan' or the 'Republic of China' or some other suitable title for Taipei to apply to the world body.
Beijing sees these initiatives as a surrogate for formal independence and Washington agrees that they are 'provocative'.
The threats from Beijing and warnings from Washington underscore the fragility of Taiwan's international status.
With more than 1,000 missiles deployed along its southeastern coast, China says it will use force should the island's leaders cross its various red lines, including a formal declaration of independence.
For Mr Chen's successor, however, democracy will not be enough to safeguard the island's future.
That will require facing up to some urgent challenges. Pre-eminent among these is a decisive shift in the balance of military and economic power across the Taiwan Strait. It is a long-predicted development, but the current Taipei government has notably failed over eight years to mount a convincing counter-strategy.
The rapidly changing tide in China's favour would be more manageable if there were not also a growing indifference in Washington, Taipei's only real ally, towards its long-term prospects.
US President George W. Bush began his first term in 2001 with strong statements of support for Taiwan. But this enthusiasm faded as China became an ally in the war on terrorism and with multiple misunderstandings between Washington and Taipei.
Now, US-Taiwan relations are at their lowest point in nearly three decades. Even future arms sales, once the mainstay of Washington's support, are now uncertain.
Another complicating factor for Taiwan's next president is the rise of a Taiwanese identity that challenges the China-centric ideology of the KMT.
Taiwanese identity emerged strongly in the 1990s under former president Lee Teng-hui, but its development has stalled under the contentious leadership of President Chen.
Even the KMT has passed through what one scholar described as 'complex nativisation' as it has emphasised a Taiwan-first outlook and a government more responsive to local needs.
Officially, the KMT is still committed to eventual unification.
But the quiet localisation of the party is reflected in Mr Ma's campaign. He was born in Hong Kong but has laboured to re-define himself as a native son of Taiwan and has vowed not to talk to Beijing about unification while he is president.
Where Mr Ma stands on the complex issues of Taiwan-China relations concerns many voters, especially those who question the KMT's enthusiasm for opening direct links across the Taiwan Strait.
While most Taiwanese still see China as an unfriendly neighbour, politics and business are jarringly disconnected. Nearly 5 per cent of Taiwanese now live and work in China, and there is an estimated US$150 billion (S$207 billion) in direct Taiwanese investments there.
In its final weeks, the presidential race has focused on concerns over Taiwan's marginalisation in the wake of China's economic boom, concerns that have been played up by the KMT and powerful business lobbies.
Mr Ma's economic agenda came under especially sharp scrutiny during recent television debates with Mr Hsieh. These policies include large public spending programmes to stimulate economic growth, restructuring trade and investment with China in terms of a 'cross-strait common market' and ending the ban on direct commercial flights.
Even some of Mr Ma's supporters say that his proposals will lead to a lurch in cross-strait integration, with little attention to managing the considerable political and economic risks.
Some analysts also dispute the alleged economic benefits of Mr Ma's proposals, especially the notion of a 'cross-strait common market', which Mr Hsieh criticises as 'naive'.
If elected, Mr Ma has promised to observe 'three nos': no talks on unification, no declaration of independence, and no use of force.
Essentially, say his supporters, he is declaring that he will not be a 'troublemaker' with Beijing and Washington, a label that President Chen acquired with his sometimes shrill defence of Taiwan's sovereignty.
Despite the popular anxiety over creeping unification, Mr Ma is favoured in opinion polls. They show strong support from the young who have no experience of the KMT's authoritarian past and have a less hostile view of China.
All these issues will come into play when an estimated 17 million eligible voters go to the polls this Saturday.
Whoever wins, they will send a clear message that the Taiwanese make their own decisions and value their autonomy.
The writer, a former Taiwan correspondent for the Far Eastern Economic Review, is working on a book on Taiwan.
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