TIBETAN PROTEST: Policewomen dragging away Tibetan protesters during a rally in a northern Indian town on Thursday. Activists plan to march to Tibet to protest against China hosting the Olympics. -- PHOTO: AP

Yes, according to the authorities, who claim to have successfully thwarted an attempt by militants from the remote north-western Xinjiang Autonomous Region, home of the Muslim Uighur community.

Depending on which version one chooses to believe, the terrorists either intended to hijack a passenger airliner and crash it into the Chinese capital, or just blow it up in mid-air.

The alleged attack was certainly well-timed, for it came precisely on the 11th anniversary of a bus explosion in Beijing near Zhongnanhai - the headquarters of the Chinese Communist Party - which was also blamed on Uighur militants.

And, curiously, the alleged incident also took place just as an international conference on Olympic Games security began in the Chinese capital.

For some, the coincidence is, in itself, a cause for suspicion. An exiled Uighur leader openly accused Chinese officials of 'fabricating' terror plots: 'If there were Uighur separatists on board, the Chinese authorities would have paraded them immediately', said Ms Rebiya Kadeer, who now lives in the US.

Few international security experts share her views. Nevertheless, most of them agree that the behaviour of the Chinese authorities was curious: Beijing provided scant details about the plot, and took days before finally characterising the attack as an 'act of terrorism'.

So, was it all a 'fabrication' designed - as some international human rights NGOs believe - to justify a crackdown against any political dissent on the eve of the Games? Possible, but not very likely.

According to a report from the US-based Security Industry Association, China will spend S$420 million on security installations at Olympic venues. 'The Olympic Games not only showcase world-class athletes, they showcase world-class security technologies and services from our industry,' said the trade organisation.

The Chinese authorities may have had something to gain by announcing the successful prevention of a terrorist attack just as the country's parliament was in session.

Revelations about a terrorist plot can keep the security services on their toes and can also serve as a direct warning to anyone planning to disrupt the Games.

But at the same time, China also has plenty to lose by damaging its reputation as a relatively low-risk country. Simply inventing terrorist threats is a self-defeating exercise.

One thing is certain, however: the Chinese authorities did not invent the serious unrest in the Tibetan capital of Lhasa this week, the worst in years.

Such events - rather than isolated acts of terrorism - are China's biggest worry. No insurance can be provided against them.

The historic omens are not good: Both the Mexico Olympics in 1968 and the Seoul Games in 1988 were accompanied by large-scale political unrest. History does come back in 20-year cycles. And Beijing is taking no chances.

Jonathan.eyal@gmail.com