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PEOPLE POWER: Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's supporters at a rally by the People Power Party. Opinion polls say the party is likely to win, but Thailand's army generals may try to stop it from forming a government -- PHOTO: REUTERS
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BANGKOK - IN AN indication of the uncertainty that lies ahead, Bangkok has become a hotbed of feverish rumours and speculation in the run-up to the Dec 23 elections.
In many cases, it is impossible to sift truth from disinformation, but one persistent rumour is that an 'excuse' will be found to postpone the elections, based on the premise that the Palang Prachachon Party (People Power Party), or PPP, will win.
The rumour has been strong and persistent enough to elicit a denial and reassurance.
The PPP comprises loyalists of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, and leader Samak Sundaravej has made it clear that if the party wins, it will reverse the ban on 111 former Thai Rak Thai officials, including Thaksin - paving the way for him to return from self-exile in London.
But the former premier, who is now in Hong Kong, told Reuters in an exclusive interview that he would never be prime minister again.
Instead, Thaksin said he wanted to devote his life to charity and set up an international foundation to help the poor in Asia through sports and education.
Several public opinion polls indicate that the PPP will emerge from the election with the highest number of seats.
The Thai daily Matichon, in an editorial yesterday, noted that previous military coups had also seen the dissolution and destruction of political parties. This time around, though, the Thai Rak Thai - dissolved for electoral fraud by the Constitutional Court in August - has managed to reinvent itself in the form of the PPP.
Avoiding a return of the PPP by delaying the elections would look bad both locally and internationally.
But speculation continues that the army will somehow come up with an excuse good enough to be accepted by the vast majority of Thais at the very least.
What the rumours ignore, however, is that Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont wants the elections to go ahead on schedule.
Doing so would allow him - and the military - to stick to earlier promises on a return to democracy, and extract themselves from the current situation with their credibility intact.
And realistically, say analysts, delaying the elections would achieve little because it would only postpone the 'problem' of the PPP coming back to power - and be bad for Thailand's image as well.
A second persistent rumour is that there will be a military coup if the PPP should prove unstoppable.
The army chief, General Amupong Paochinda, has stated clearly that he is against the army interfering in politics - and has denied toying with the idea of more intervention after the Dec 23 election.
But his words have done little to reassure Bangkok's chattering classes, especially as his predecessor Sonthi Boonyarataglin made similar statements before launching the coup which overthrew Thaksin last year.
Since his appointment in October, Gen Anupong has moved to install loyalist officers in key positions to strengthen his own influence among battalion commanders - who are considered crucial in any coup or counter-coup.
Underlying both the rumours is the belief that the army will not tolerate the PPP coming to power.
Nobody doubts that the army would find that hard to stomach.
A Bangkok Post report yesterday quoted an unnamed army source as saying: 'Everybody is aware of the need to stop the old power group from returning to power.'
'Old power' is a term used to refer to the Thai Rak Thai.
On Wednesday, the Election Commission asked the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to block the website www.hi-thaksin.net - Thaksin's vehicle - because it had posted messages saying a vote for the PPP was tantamount to a vote for Thaksin.
Yesterday, the website did not open when accessed through the Internet in Thailand. But when asked by The Straits Times, an official at the ministry denied that the site had been blocked.
The rumours are also fuelled by the exposure of a plan purportedly to undermine the PPP and formulated by the military Council for National Security (CNS) under its former chairman, General Sonthi - who is now the deputy prime minister.
Documents said to outline the plan were leaked to PPP leader Samak, who made them public, sparking an investigation by the Election Commission.
The Election Commission is currently reviewing the documents, and two members of the CNS are expected to testify before the body on Tuesday.
There is some wrangling over whether the leaked versions were doctored, but in the meantime, the very fact that they exist is enough to keep the rumour mill going.
nirmal@sph.com.sg
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