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TIT FOR TAT?: The cancellation of a Hong Kong port call by the US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk is believed to have been prompted by the Dalai Lama's visit to Washington in October. -- AFP
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BEIJING - CHINA'S recent rebuffs of United States naval ships planning to visit Hong Kong are chiefly in retaliation against Washington's warm reception of the Dalai Lama in October, Chinese analysts said.
Beijing has turned away nine US warships in the past month, including the aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and naval frigate Reuben James, US military officials said last Friday.
China most likely reacted out of concern that it had been too 'soft' on United States President George W. Bush over his meeting with the exiled Tibetan leader, compared with its tough response to Germany for receiving the Dalai Lama, military and foreign policy experts in Beijing told The Straits Times.
After German Chancellor Angela Merkel met the Dalai Lama last month, China moved swiftly to cancel a visit by Germany's Finance Minister and suspend a bilateral legal dialogue.
'There has been criticism at home and abroad that China was more lax in its response to the US and tougher on Germany, so the rejection of US port calls to Hong Kong is China's way of showing consistency,' said Beijing security analyst Wang Xiangsui.
Beijing's cancellation last month of a holiday port visit to Hong Kong by the Kitty Hawk, as well as its barring of other US ships from the territory, has damaged warming Sino-US military ties, say experts.
They add that the current spat will set back confidence-building measures such as regular high-level military exchanges and ongoing efforts to establish a hotline between the two militaries.
US officials revealed late last week that China's rejection of a request by the warship Reuben James to visit Hong Kong on New Year's Eve had been communicated to the US Navy at around the same time that the Kitty Hawk was turned away.
The Pentagon has demanded an explanation for China's sudden refusal to allow what have been routine rest and recreation stops in Hong Kong for American naval ships in the Asia-Pacific.
China has suspended such port calls only occasionally over the past 10 years as a gesture of protest over American actions.
Beijing voiced unhappiness last week about Mr Bush's October presentation of a Congressional Gold Medal to the Dalai Lama and US arms sales to Taiwan. China is worried about any encouragement to Taiwan's pro-independence politicians ahead of the island's presidential polls next March.
Last Friday, Communist Party tabloid The Global Times quoted an unidentified Chinese naval official as saying the US should have expected that its recent decision to sell Taiwan upgrades to its Patriot missile system would anger China and that 'the US military should have changed its port visiting plans on its own initiative'.
However, Chinese analysts told The Straits Times that the arms sales to Taiwan were not the main trigger for Beijing's rejection of the port calls, as previous US arms sales to the island had not affected American naval stops in Hong Kong.
'There is a lot of speculation as to what is really going on, but I would say unhappiness over the Dalai Lama's visit to the US is the most plausible reason for the bar on the port calls,' Renmin University analyst Shi Yinhong told The Straits Times.
To further explain the suspended port visits, Chinese and Taiwanese analysts have speculated Beijing is trying to keep the US Navy away from a hush-hush People's Liberation Army exercise being staged along China's south-eastern coast. Such a drill has not been announced by Beijing.
Already, the dispute has had spill-over effects on Sino-Japanese military relations. Late last week, Japan refused a Chinese request for its soldiers to tour an advanced combat ship, dampening the historic visit of a Chinese missile destroyer to Japan.
The Japanese move was ostensibly made at the instigation of US naval officials, who had told reporters that Japan would begin tightening approval for Chinese naval visits to its ports.
While the dispute over the port calls reflects, at heart, the precariousness of ties between China and the US, Chinese experts say ties at large between the two military giants will not be affected.
Said Professor Wang: 'The tension will blow over once both sides feel they have done enough to register their unhappiness at each other's actions.'
clare@sph.com.sg
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