WINDS OF CHANGE: In the long run in Malaysia, overtly ethnic-based politics may not have the sort of appeal that it enjoys now. -- PHOTO: AP

Their evening editions were running pictures and articles on this superstar of the Chinese community on the day he passed away even as the other media were still putting together their pages for the next day.�

The Chinese papers sell a total of one million copies daily. They posted the highest rate of growth last year at 9 per cent and, together, they command an advertising expenditure valued at about RM2 billion (S$868 million) a year.�

Sin Chew Daily executive director Rita Sim said 3.5 million of the four million adult Chinese in Malaysia read Chinese newspapers.�

The numbers will continue to grow, but there will be limitations because growth of the Chinese population is the lowest among the ethnic groups in Malaysia.�

The Chinese population increased twofold from 3.7 million in 1970 to about seven million last year. But its proportion to the total population fell from 37 per cent to only 25 per cent over the same period.�

HAVING, AND EATING, THEIR CAKE The Chinese have always desired the best of both worlds. They see the MCA as a vehicle for socio-economic opportunities and the DAP as a tool to hit out at the government.

Malays make up 54 per cent of the general population, other bumiputera 12 per cent and Indians and others 9 per cent.�

By 2021, the Chinese proportion is expected to be only 21 per cent against 71 per cent for the bumiputera and 8 per cent for Indians and others.�

The Chinese are simply not having as many babies as Malaysians of other races.�

Even in Penang, long touted as a 'Chinese state' and the only state with a Chinese chief minister, the Chinese no longer hold sway, making up only about 45 per cent of the population. �

The Federal Territory, once a 'Chinatown', has only slightly more than 40 per cent Chinese, followed by Johor, Perak and Selangor where the Chinese form only about a third or so of their respective state populations.�

The causes for the sluggish Chinese growth are well known: higher education, rising numbers joining the workforce, changing attitudes about life and work, birth control and late or non-marriage. �

Also, the Chinese, being an urban-based community, are more responsive to socio-economic changes than other ethnic groups.�

Then there is the overwhelming fact that the bumiputera population has been growing faster.�

Many middle-class Chinese claim they are under greater pressure than Malays when it comes to starting a family and planning for their children's future. �

They cannot depend on the state for their children's future and they are fond of saying that they have to start saving for their kids' education from the time they are in the womb, hence their propensity for smaller families.�

'The demographic changes we see among the Chinese here are typical as society advances and as the standard of living goes up. You see this sort of transition after one or two generations and the trend will not reverse as demographers will tell you,' said one Sarawak academic. �

'Changes in ethnic composition are always of interest in a multiracial society and a matter of concern, especially to political parties,' said Ms Sim, who is also deputy chairman of Insap, the think- tank of the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA). �

There have been well-intended though less than successful attempts to arrest the slide.�

The MCA launched its Cupid Club several years ago to help singles meet potential marriage partners, and some Chinese groups offered incentives for couples to have more children.�

But, as some have pointed out, although it is nice to collect an ang pow after giving birth, bringing up the child is another story.�

How will changing Chinese demography affect the ethnic framework of Malaysian politics, particularly given that politics is a numbers game?�

'There are two major collating consequences. One is that there will be less and less Chinese-majority constituencies and that, in turn, will lead to questions over the allocation of seats and posts,' said the academic from Sarawak.�

Is the day when Gerakan will have to surrender the post of chief minister in Penang to Umno not too far in the future? And will the Chinese-based parties in Barisan Nasional see an erosion of representation in the government?�

Policy analyst Ong Kian Ming likened the nature of Chinese politics to a 'Chinese box'.�

The box will shrink as the percentage of Chinese population decreases, he noted in a 2004 article, Chinese In A Box? The Future Of Chinese Politics In Malaysia.�

'The long-term trends are not so encouraging. The nature of ethnically based politics in Malaysia is that MCA and Gerakan are limited to fighting for representation within the Chinese box.'�

It is possible that these contests will increase as rewards outside of this box become less and less for these two parties.�

Throw in the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and one has three Chinese-based parties fighting over a rather limited turf.�

The DAP, said a senior MCA politician, will get the short end of the stick when that happens.�

Inter-ethnic alliances will be crucial for victory in the long run as Chinese-majority seats evolve into ethnically mixed seats, and this is where coalition politics holds the advantage.�

'The DAP used to poke fun at the MCA for depending on Malay votes to pass the finishing line. But DAP will be the first to close shop as the Chinese population decreases in proportion. Even now, the DAP is feeling the heat of not having Malay votes to push them past the post,' said the politician. � For instance, Bandar Melaka and Seremban used to be DAP strongholds but, with each constituency delineation, the party will find it more difficult to win without Malay support.�

The MCA politician added: 'Being in the Barisan, it is natural to depend on each other to do well. When the Malays turned against Umno in 1999, the party depended on the Chinese to succeed. This time around, they will give us their support.'�

The Chinese have always desired the best of both worlds. They see the MCA as a vehicle for socio-economic opportunities and the DAP as a tool to hit out at the government.�But they may have to rethink their tactic with a shrinking Chinese box.

'Chinese political leaders would definitely be concerned about future trends, but some of the questions we are asking today may not have the same implications 20 years down the road,' said Dr Hou Kok Chung, director of the Institute of China Studies in Universiti Malaya.�

He suggested that future generations of Malaysians, whether Chinese or otherwise, would not necessarily view politics along communal lines. �

Overtly ethnic-based politics may not have the sort of appeal that it enjoys now.�

It will take time, but for generations down the road, things are bound to be quite different. Inter-ethnic alliances will be crucial for victory in the long run as Chinese-majority seats evolve into ethnically mixed seats.