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IN BEIJING - AMONG the multitude of rising stars in the Chinese leadership, few in recent years have generated as much buzz as Mr Li Keqiang.
As party chief of north-eastern Liaoning province, the 52-year-old neither holds the most coveted provincial appointment nor enjoys a high public profile.
But what has drawn people's attention to him over the years is his close relationship with President Hu Jintao, which goes back to more than two decades ago when they worked together in the Communist Youth League (CYL).
This powerful connection, many analysts believe, will finally propel Mr Li ahead of his competitors and make him Mr Hu's heir apparent later this month when the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) convenes a five-yearly leadership meeting, called the 17th Party Congress.
'Li has been groomed for a long time, that's why he was first sent to lead Henan in 1998, the largest agricultural province, and then Liaoning, one of the main industrial provinces, in 2004,' Hong Kong-based China scholar Dr Willy Lam told The Straits Times.
No one may ever find conclusive evidence to support this, given that news about the secretive world of Chinese politics is often a heady mix of fact, fiction and gossip.
But behind the frenzied guessing game about Mr Li's political fortunes lies a real issue that the party has to address at the upcoming Congress - institutional leadership renewal.
China witnessed its first orderly transfer of power in late 2002 when Mr Hu took over from retiring leader Jiang Zemin. Likewise, Mr Hu is expected to hand over the reins to a younger leader in 2012, after two terms in power.
But the process of picking Mr Hu's successor - or indeed, every subsequent top Chinese leader - has not been clearly established despite the party's efforts to institutionalise orderly succession at all levels of the system since the 1980s.
For instance, should the CCP persist with the tradition of anointing just one successor or nominate a handful of competing candidates?
In the past week, word has spread through the political grapevine that Shanghai party boss Xi Jinping, 54, may also be groomed as another potential successor alongside Mr Li.
Mr Xi is one of four rising stars in the party along with Mr Li, Jiangsu party chief Li Yuanchao and Commerce Minister Bo Xilai. They have been dubbed the 'Four Heavenly Kings' by Hong Kong's China-watching press.
Another major question involves the assessment of the potential successor or successors. How should this be conducted and what interim appointments should they be given?
The decade-long preparation that Mr Hu underwent during his time offers clues and precedents.
But the CCP would be wading into entirely new territory if it decides on a multi-candidate system.
The succession issue is further complicated by the changing political environment in China. In the past, party strongmen such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping could name their successors with relative ease.
Mr Jiang and Mr Hu were apparently handpicked by Mr Deng himself. But it is unlikely that Mr Jiang and Mr Hu would be able to make the same kind of decisions on their own, given that they enjoy much less clout in the party than Mr Deng did.
'Resolution of this question will challenge existing arrangements and power balances in the leadership and so spark controversy and infighting,' Professor Alice Lyman Miller of Stanford University's Hoover Institution wrote in a paper last year.
Political watchers expect the final decision to be a compromise between major power brokers and rival factions.
Mr Hu is believed to have the upper hand for now, meaning his protege is still the front runner in the race, although Mr Xi has lately emerged as a strong contender because he is amenable to all factions.
Mr Li has a doctorate in economics from the elite Beijing University and, like other officials with a CYL background, he is more adept in party ideology and organisation than administrative roles.
He is untested in central government or foreign policy, but those who have met or dealt directly with him in the provinces are impressed.
'He is urbane, speaks fluent English and is very skilful at engaging outsiders on party policy,' an industry source with direct contact with Mr Li told The Straits Times.
'You know what kind of backing he has because things move very fast whenever he is behind them.'
But there are also genuine doubts as to whether he has what it takes to run a country as vast and complex as China, following his lacklustre performance in the provinces.
His tenure in Henan was marred by news of an official cover-up of a tainted blood donor programme from which tens of thousands of peasants contracted Aids. In Liaoning, his efforts to create jobs and improve people's livelihoods have achieved modest results, said analysts.
'It's very much a consensus among intellectuals that he has not achieved very much,' said Dr Lam.
'His main advantage is his strong personal chemistry with Mr Hu.'
Similar doubts have been raised about Mr Hu before he assumed power and he has since proven many wrong.
The world will know in two or three weeks, when the Congress closes, if Mr Li would be chosen to follow in his mentor's footsteps.
clare@sph.com.sg
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