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BOOST FOR BILATERAL TIES: Mr Hu (right) meeting the then newly-elected Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe in Beijing last year. -- PHOTO: AFP
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BEIJING - WHEN China's low-key Communist Party leader Hu Jintao came to power in late 2002, the international press inevitably ran headlines like 'Who's Hu?' and 'Hu's in charge?'
The questions were as much a reflection of his cautious ways as of persistent doubts about whether the newly minted leader had the clout to run the world's most populous country.
Five years on, four analysts who spoke to The Straits Times rated his first-term performance as being better than expected, but said the lack of meaningful political reforms was a major disappointment.
'You have to rate his performance as very good along the two dimensions of high economic growth and continued political stability,' said Professor Richard Baum of the University of California, Los Angeles.
He and other veteran China watchers also praised Mr Hu for making a timely 'course correction' in steering the country away from all-out economic growth towards greater social equity and balanced development.
The 65-year-old Chinese leader is expected to further cement his grip on power and the domestic agenda at the upcoming 17th Party Congress, a five-yearly leadership meeting that will open on Oct 15.
During the meeting, Mr Hu is expected to anoint a successor, sweep aside several political rivals, and obtain ringing endorsement for a political report setting out his goals for a 'harmonious society'.
In the early days of his tenure, however, it was not apparent that he would eventually enjoy this much success.
For one thing, the political odds were heavily stacked against him. When he came into power five years ago, the upper echelons of the party, military and government were packed with allies and proteges of his retiring predecessor Jiang Zemin in a move clearly designed to check the younger leader's ascendancy.
Mr Hu made no obvious counter-offensive until an unexpected opportunity presented itself months later in 2003 when Sars, the fast-spreading respiratory disease, hit China hard. Mr Hu and his right-hand man, Premier Wen Jiabao, seized the chance to present themselves as decisive leaders, sacking several senior officials behind the initial cover-up of the outbreak. They also visited hospitals and residential areas to show concern for the ordinary folk.
These astute moves allowed Mr Hu to put his political rivals - many of whom avoided appearing in public for fear of infection - on the defensive. More importantly, his handling of the Sars crisis earned him immense public goodwill and political capital that he would draw upon in subsequent political battles.
'Sars was his major test and he handled it rather brilliantly,' said Professor Joseph Cheng of City University in Hong Kong.
More political victories came Mr Hu's way in subsequent years as he wrested control of the military from Mr Jiang, co-opted rivals who could be persuaded to switch sides, and ruthlessly sacked those who failed to toe the line, such as former Shanghai party boss Chen Liangyu.
While analysts have been impressed with Mr Hu's political instincts, they almost uniformly bemoan his weak stomach for political reforms that would make the Chinese Communist Party more responsive to the needs and demands of a rapidly changing country.
'What China needs urgently are healthy, functioning political feedback mechanisms such as independent or autonomous interest groups, a free press and civil society,' said Prof Baum.
'Without them, there is no reliable warning mechanism for the regime and this can lead to big problems.'
Analysts said there is little likelihood that the politically conservative Mr Hu would move in that direction during his second term in office, even though he would be more secure in his leadership.
Said Beijing-based political commentator Zhang Zuhua: 'Hu Jintao will face fewer restrictions as a leader in the next five years, but objectively speaking, he can't change who he is.'
For his second term, Mr Hu will likely focus on securing his place in history, as well as grooming his successor for a smooth handover in 2012.
'I think it will be considered a success if Hu Jintao can ride out his second term with 9 to 10 per cent economic growth and encounter no major societal or political catastrophe,' said Prof Baum.
'The incentive for him to introduce any major reform is going to diminish dramatically, so I think any major changes will have to depend on the next generation.'
chinhon@sph.com.sg
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