STRONG TURNOUT: Buddhist monks, accompanied by supporters, marched through Yangon yesterday, Estimates about the crowd size varied from 50,000 to 100,000. Protests by monks and some lay people also took place in other cities. -- PHOTO: REUTERS

In the first official reaction to the escalating protests, state media reported that the Religion Minister, Brigadier-General Thura Myint Maung, had met senior clergy to deliver the warning.

'If the monks go against the rules and regulations in the authority of the Buddhist teachings, we will take action under the existing law,' state television quoted him as saying.

His comments were broadcast after the strongest display of dissent seen in the country since the bloody pro-democracy uprising in 1988.

'The crowd is enormous,' a local resident who saw yesterday's protest in Yangon told The Straits Times. 'The situation is very unpredictable.'

Estimates about the crowd size varied from 50,000 to 100,000, with reports quoting witnesses as saying that an eight-lane road was filled with people for a 1.6km stretch.

Protests by monks and some lay people also took place in other cities, beginning early in the morning in Myitkyina and spreading to Natmauk, Monywa, Daike Oo, Pakokku, Aunglan and Yezagyo. Several schools in Yangon and other cities were reported closed.

'The critical factor is how the authorities react to this,' an official of an aid agency in Yangon told The Straits Times. 'It would be difficult for the army to do anything with a crowd of this size. If they do decide to crack down, it will most likely be by mass arrests before dawn.'

The monks on the streets ignored a directive from the state-backed Sangha Nayaka Committee, comprising senior clergy, which said monks visiting Yangon should be sent back home.

The committee is seen as co-opted by the junta, unlike the newly emerged National Alliance of Buddhist monks - a relatively little known organisation apparently composed of younger monks that says it is spearheading the protests.

Analysts had said the presence of the monks made the military wary of cracking down on the protests for fear of inflaming the general population.

The almost instant reach of electronic media, the upcoming session of the United Nations General Assembly, and concern expressed by China and Asean may also have been factors.

Singapore, the current Asean chairman, yesterday said it was monitoring the situation in a fellow member state.

In response to media queries, a Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman said: 'We hope that the ongoing protests will be resolved in a peaceful manner.'

Germany and France added their voices to the international chorus urging restraint, with the foreign ministry in Paris warning that the junta would be held accountable if there were any harsh crackdowns.

Diplomats say China, which is close to Yangon, may also be playing a quiet role behind the scenes.

Mr Larry Jagan, a Bangkok-based analyst who also has written extensively on Myanmar, believes the junta is now more conscious of how its actions play in the international community than in 1988, when a mass pro-democracy movement led by university students was suppressed brutally.

But other analysts, such as Professor Win Min, a specialist in Myanmar affairs at Payap University in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, said Myanmar's military was not known for negotiating with its critics.

Also, as the protests escalate, the army risks giving too little, too late, even if it negotiates, he said.

He also noted that the protests had yet to reach the level of those in 1988, when millions took to the streets all over the country.

nirmal@sph.com.sg

MORE REPORTS

STRONG WARNING

'If the monks go against the rules and regulations in the authority of the Buddhist teachings, we will take action under the existing law.'

RELIGION MINISTER THURA MYINT MAUNG, warning senior clergy about the monk-led protests