Another safe prediction about the Iraq war commander's dialogue with Washington's elites (scheduled to begin today) before the House Armed Services and International Relations Committees): Most of the commentariat will be pessimistic.

Most analysts will say, not without some justification, that it is time for Washington to stop trying to force-feed democracy in the Middle East.

Are there any reasons for optimism? Very few. But it is perhaps worth noting one development that Lieutenant Colonel Dave Kilcullen, an Australian member of the general's Baghdad staff, says 'has dramatically improved security in Anbar province west of the capital'.

A predominantly Sunni province, Anbar has long been, as Col Kilcullen puts it, 'a media byword for constant pointless violence'. But recently 'the rate of civilian deaths has dropped precipitously and...attacks are down far below historic trends, to almost nothing in some places'.

The reason: a tribal uprising against Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda that appears to have begun with disputes over women. The revolt's implications, says the colonel, 'have been somewhat overlooked by the news media and in the public debate in coalition capitals'.

The trouble began with some egregious overreaching by Osama's followers. One of the extremist organisation's standard techniques for the past couple of decades has been to marry its leaders and key operatives to women from prominent tribal families. The colonel has encountered the ploy in places as diverse as Indonesia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Somalia.

'The strategy works by creating a bond with the community, exploiting kinship-based alliances, and so 'embedding' the Al-Qaeda network into the society,' explains Col Kilcullen in the latest issue of Small Wars Journal (www.smallwarsjournal.com), a blog that has emerged as one of the Iraq war's leading chronicles.

Over time, the colonel adds, the embedding weddings 'makes Al-Qaeda part of the social landscape'. This allows the terrorists 'to manipulate local people and makes it harder for outsiders to pry the network apart from the population'.

Last year, while the colonel was working with tribes along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, an officer in Pakistan's Khyber Rifles told him: 'We Punjabis are the foreigners here. Al-Qaeda have been here 25 years and have married into the Pashtun hill tribes to the point where it's hard to tell the terrorists from everyone else.'

In Anbar province, however, Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) appears to have overplayed its hand. In this region (and others in rural Iraq), custom, explains the colonel, is at least as important as religion.

Custom's dictates, often pre-Islamic in origin, frequently differ from - and take precedence over - Islam's: '(And) when all involved are Muslim, kinship trumps religion.'

Marrying women to strangers, let alone foreigners, is just not done.

But AQI, which consists mostly of urban Iraqis, often ignored this. The Sunni extremists, 'with their hyperreductionist version of Islam stripped of cultural content, discounted the tribes' view of (marriage practices) as ignorant, stupid and sinful'.

In Anbar, matters came to a head when AQI jihadists killed a sheikh for refusing to give daughters of his tribe to them in marriage. In revenge, his people attacked AQI.

'The terrorists retaliated with immense brutality, killing the children of a prominent sheikh in a particularly gruesome manner,' says Col Kilcullen, who spoke to eyewitnesses. When neighbouring tribes rose in support last year, AQI responded with even more atrocities.

Women were not the only issue. AQI also violently disrupted tribesmen's smuggling, import/export and construction businesses. According to the colonel, the uprising now affects about 40 per cent of Iraq, including parts of Baghdad, both city and province.

Can the US-led coalition make use of this new development? Col Kilcullen seems guardedly optimistic.

Correctly handled and in partnership with the Iraqi government, he says, 'the current social 'wave' of Sunni communities turning against AQI could provide one element in the self-sustaining security architecture we have been seeking'.

In support of his optimism, Col Kilcullen turns to the teachings of Sir Robert Thompson, the British officer often credited with a major role in suppressing Malaya's communist uprising 60 years ago: 'You know things are starting to go your way when local people start joining your side against the enemy.'

The colonel warns that this uprising against extremism is not something for which the US-led coalition and the so-called 'surge' - the temporary reinforcements that American forces launched several months ago - can really take the credit.

The coalition, says the colonel, should remember that this anti-Al-Qaeda rebellion belongs to the Iraqi people.

He adds: 'This will play out in ways that may be good or bad but are fundamentally unpredictable. So far so good, though...'

anthonypaul2@bigpond.com

LOCAL FRIENDS

'You know things are starting to go your way when local people start joining your side against the enemy.'
SIR ROBERT THOMPSON