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July 1, 2007
BOOMING STOCK MARKET
Is it time to sell?
Experts warn of growing volatility in overvalued markets and suggest safer territories investors can move some funds to
By Lorna Tan, Finance Correspondent
ST PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: LEE CHEE CHEW, STEPHANIE YEOW & ISTOCKPHOTO
SHARE markets in Singapore and across Asia have been racking up some impressive numbers over recent months, even with this week's minor retreat.

And while soaring markets might look like easy money, many experts are advising investors to switch out of overvalued markets and move to safer territories.

A Citigroup Research report on Monday called for a 'sell' on Singapore stocks with its chief Asia strategist, Mr Markus Rosgen, recommending that investors channel their money to Taiwan instead.

The report was issued after the Straits Times Index (STI) hit a record high of 3,639.49 points on June 21, the same week that markets in Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, China and South Korea were surging to dizzying heights.

The performance of the STI was mixed over the past week or so - it fell by 133 points over a four-day slide, then bounced back on Thursday and Friday to end the week at 3,548.2.

The Sunday Times polled some market watchers about Asian bourses to help investors sort out the gold mines from the minefields.


Expensive markets


Singapore

Citigroup's caution over Singapore comes after three years of rating the market as overweight - that is, putting a greater proportion of stock finds here as opposed to other markets.

The share prices of Singapore firms are considered expensive compared to the assets reflected in their respective accounts. Currently, the ratio of the share price to book value is 2.6 and that is the highest in 17 years.

In contrast, the same ratio for Taiwan-listed firms is 2.2.

Mr Rosgen recommends Taiwan where valuations are much lower, at levels seen only in crisis periods.

Mr Joseph Chong, chief executive of financial advisory firm New Independent, agrees, warning that there are signs of overheating in the economy as wages and rents have been rising much higher than gross domestic product growth.

However, the research manager at Fundsupermart, Ms Mah Ching Cheng, believes that though Singapore is no longer cheap, it is still 'reasonably valued'.

For those still keen on Singapore stocks, fund manager William Cai sees upside in counters such as Chuan Hup, Global Test and Amtek Engineering.

However, he suggests selling Celestial Group, Penguin Boat International, Cosco Corp, SingTel, Reyoung Pharmaceutical Holdings and Magnecomp International.


India

Shares in this market are trading at levels well above the potential future earnings of the firms, to the point where many experts are branding India as 'pricey'.

Ms Mah also notes that Indian shares have performed 'very strongly' in the past three years. Last year, the market returned 37.8 per cent in Singapore dollar terms. Put simply, if you had invested $10 you would have got back $13.78. And on a year-to-date basis as at Wednesday, the market returned 13.2 per cent.


China

Experts such as Mr Cai and IPP Financial Advisers investment director Albert Lam find China shares expensive.

Unlike a year ago when the shares were relatively cheap, many are now trading at prices far out of proportion to the future earnings potential of the company.

However, Ms Mah feels Chinese equities are still attractive, thanks to the strength of the economy and continued signs of strong earnings growth.



Attractive markets

THESE include Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea, where share prices are at conservative levels in relation to company earnings.

Ms Mah says the market earnings growth for South Korea was a slight negative last year because of losses from LG Philips, one of the country's bellwether companies which sells consumer electronics. 'But in 2007, we can see an improvement with earnings expected to grow 7.2 per cent.

As for Taiwan, firms related to the technology sector, such as Hon Hai, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and United Microelectronics Corp, are likely to be boosted by improvements in earnings if the demand for consumer electronics picks up in the third quarter,' she adds.


Thailand

Ms Mah notes that Thai stocks have been laggards until recently.

The reason was the political uncertainty following the coup that ousted Thailand's former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra last year.

The market was much ignored by global investors until the election date was fixed at Nov 25.

Since the beginning of May the Thai stock market has risen by 12.3 per cent in Singdollar terms on the back of rising corporate earnings.


Taiwan and South Korea

Experts expect to see an improvement in earnings this year.


Europe

Mr Chong believes Europe's structural reforms are paying off.

Stock prices look reasonable based on companies' prospective earnings.

'Real corporate earnings growth of 8 per cent is attractive for a developed market with good corporate governance,' says Mr Chong.


Global health care

Mr Chong sees this sector as a 'compelling' investment choice with good earnings prospects while share valuations do not yet seem to have caught up with the potential.

He notes that large drug companies are flushed with cash with new drugs coming into the market while research costs have been contained.

And ageing populations and demand for better health care in the newly rich countries are driving growth across the health-care industry.


What should investors do

EXPERTS believe retail investors are in for periods of greater volatility with some markets facing widespread corrections.

Investors who have sunk a larger proportion of their cash into such markets can pare down their holdings and invest into more attractively valued bourses, says Ms Mah.

'As India and China are both emerging Asian giants, if investors still wish to invest in their growth they may have to be prepared to hold these equities for the longer term and be prepared to withstand greater levels of volatility in the mean time,' she says.

Singapore stock investors are advised by Mr Cai to hold a diversified portfolio of five to 20 stocks.

'Make sure the portfolio is manageable according to your available time. Establish your own stop-loss and entry/re-entry rules and you will be protected,' he says.

Given the market talk of impending correction, Mr Lam says his company has advised clients to allocate more money to lower volatility funds such as balanced funds and global property funds. Its top allocation is still Asia.

Mr Chong's advice to investors is to 'diversify globally and across asset classes'. This is because the chances of making money on a continuous and sustainable basis are much higher with global diversification.

Wealth management firm dollarDEX chief executive Chris Firth believes the bull market is still intact for the time being, globally and in Singapore. 'Notably, we haven't seen many insiders selling yet and despite a mixed outlook, the United States and Europe are generally resilient. There is a possibility that Chinese money is set to move into global markets.'

Though there will undoubtedly be periods of consolidation when markets get ahead of fundamentals or when fear dominates thinking, he says short-term corrections should be seen as opportune times to accumulate equities.

lorna@sph.com.sg


Expert advice

Ms Mah Ching Cheng, Fundsupermart research manager

'As India and China are both emerging Asian giants, if investors still wish to invest in their growth they may have to be prepared to hold these equities for the longer term and be prepared to withstand greater levels of volatility.'


Mr William Cai, fund manager

'Make sure your portfolio is manageable according to your available time. Establish your own stop-loss and entry/re-entry rules and you will be protected.'


Mr Chris Firth, dollarDEX chief executive

'Notably, we haven't seen many insiders selling yet and despite a mixed outlook, the United States and Europe are generally resilient. There is a possibility that Chinese money is set to move into global markets.'


Mr Joseph Chong, New Independent chief executive

He sees the health-care sector as a 'compelling' investment choice with good earnings prospects while share valuations do not yet seem to have caught up with the potential.

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