DALLAS - US CRIME rates have defied conventional wisdom by falling at a time when law enforcement officials had braced themselves for a surge because of the recession and joblessness.
A report in January said a survey of US police chiefs saw the economic downturn sparking a rise in crime - a view echoed by many commentators. The current recession, considered one of the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s, began in December 2007.
EXPECTATIONS VERSUS REALITY
Alfred Blumstein, a criminologist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, said a sour economy always raised the expectation that people without a job or adequate welfare would turn to crime as a source of income.
But he said people who earned an honest living for years were unlikely to start stealing.
But violent crime in the United States fell 2.5 per cent last year as cities and towns across the country reported fewer murders, rapes and other incidents for a second straight year, the FBI said earlier this week.
In 2008, the number of murders fell by 4.4 per cent, aggravated assaults by 3.2 per cent, rapes by 2.2 per cent and robberies by 1.1 per cent. Property crimes, including auto theft, were also down, falling 1.6 per cent from 2007 levels, although burglaries rose 1.3 per cent.
'I was among those who anticipated a crime increase with the recession and am on the record as saying that. I'm very surprised and this shows that crime is very difficult to predict at a general level,' said Bert Useem, a professor of sociology at Purdue University in Indiana.
He said history had many such examples.
'Historically, there is a weak correlation between economic conditions and crime rates and there are large anomalies. The 1960s was a period of prosperity, yet crime rates escalated dramatically during this period,' he said.
Dr Useem noted that the 1960s were a period of profound cultural change when trust in institutions and authority diminished greatly.
'What really seems to matter most is the balance between forces that are pulling society in different directions and those that are pulling society together. I think things are happening now that are pulling us together, there is a sense of common sacrifice,' he said.
Roger Lane, a Haverford College historian and author of 'Murder in America: A History,' said that during the Great Depression, 'the trend for homicide was down,' despite popular culture's depictions of criminals such as Bonnie and Clyde.
Crime rates, especially in violent categories, are generally higher in the United States than in most developed countries, making crime an important political issue. -- REUTERS
