PARIS - THE global economic crisis has heightened the risk that 'tensions could explode' in Africa, where growth will be slashed this year because of recession in rich nations, the OECD warned Monday.
'There are signs of increasing political tension that cannot be ignored,' said a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), African Development Bank (AfDB) and UN Economic Commission for Africa which said the continent's growth would be cut to 2.8 per cent this year after 5.7 per cent in 2008.
Stressing that it was using 'optimistic' estimates, it forecast a moderate 4.5 per cent recovery in Gross Domestic Product in 2010.
Commodity prices and demand from Western countries have collapsed in the crisis. The OECD said that while Asia remains a growing trading partner, particularly China and India, the demand was mainly for commodities and this has fallen off dramatically.
South Africa, the continent's biggest economy, will see GDP growth fall from 3.1 per cent in 2008 to 1.1 per cent this year.
The OECD highlighted how a US$3.3 billion (S$4.8 billion) Nigerian-Chinese deal to build cement plants across Africa has been suspended. A nine billion dollar accord between China and DR Congo for mineral resources in exchange for infrastructure has also stalled.
Several African countries have already seen food riots over the past 18 months and South Africa had deadly riots with 'xenophobic connotations", said the report which highlighted a new surge in military coups: in Mauritania and Guinea.
The army also intervened to help overthrow Madagascar's president this year, while the military in Guinea-Bissau killed President Joao Bernardo Vieira.
The report expressed concerns about events in Chad, where rebels staged a new offensive as the report was being released and how social protests had growing political impact.
'In Cameroon, protests against high prices were coupled with discontent over President Paul Biya's intention to modify the constitution in order to be allowed to run for a third mandate.' 'Political economy considerations have acquired increasing relevance and the authorities have had to strike a careful balance between the need to take some measures to control unrest and the need to avoid a shift to authoritarianism,' said the report. -- AFP
