WASHINGTON: The terrorism threat to the United States over the next five years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa, persistent challenges to border security and increasing Internet savvy, according to a new intelligence assessment.
Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks are considered the most dangerous threats against the US. But these are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for Al-Qaeda and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots, said the internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-2013.
The Al-Qaeda terrorist network continues to focus on US attack targets vulnerable to massive economic losses, casualties and political 'turmoil', the assessment said.
Earlier this month, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction remains 'the highest priority at the federal level'. Speaking to reporters on Dec 3, he explained that more people, such as terrorists, will learn how to make dirty bombs, and biological and chemical weapons.
Marked 'for official use only', the report does not specify its audience, but the assessments typically go to law enforcement and intelligence officials, and the private sector. When determining threats, intelligence officials consider loss of life, and economic and psychological consequences.
Intelligence officials predict that in the next five years, terrorists will try to conduct a destructive biological attack. Officials are concerned about the possibility of thousands of US citizens being infected and overwhelming regional health-care systems. There could also be dire economic impacts caused by workers' illnesses and deaths.
'The threat of terrorism and the threat of extremist ideologies has not abated,' Mr Chertoff said on Dec 18 in a year-end address.
Over the next five years, terrorists will continue to try to evade US border security measures and place operatives inside the mainland to carry out attacks, the 38-page assessment said. It also said that they may pose as refugees or asylum seekers or try to exploit foreign travel channels like the visa waiver programme, which lets citizens of 34 nations enter the US without visas.
Long waits for immigration and more restrictive European refugee and asylum programmes will cause more foreigners to try to enter the US illegally. Increasing numbers of Iraqis are expected to migrate to the US in the next five years; and refugees from Somalia and Sudan could increase because of conflicts in those countries, the assessment said.
Because there is a proposed cap of 12,000 refugees from Africa, officials expect more will try to enter the US illegally as well. Officials predict the same scenario for refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Intelligence officials predict that the pool of radical Islamists within the US will increase over the next five years due partly to the ease of online recruiting means. Officials foresee 'a wave of young, self-identified Muslim 'terrorist wannabes' who aspire to carry out violent acts'.
The US has already seen some examples of home-grown terrorists. Recently, five Muslim immigrants were convicted of plotting to massacresoldiers at Fort Dix.
In addition, the cyber-terror threat is expected to increase over the next five years. 'Youthful, Internet-savvy extremists might apply their online acumen to conduct cyber attacks rather than offer themselves up as operatives to conduct physical attacks,' the assessment predicts.
Currently, Islamic terrorists, including the Al-Qaeda, would like to conduct cyber attacks, but they lack the capability to do so, the assessment said. But the terrorist group does have the capability to hire sophisticated hackers to carry out large-scale attacks like disrupting a major city's water or power systems.
Officials also predict that domestic terrorists like radical animal rights and environmental extremists will become more adept with explosives and increase their use of arson attacks.
