WASHINGTON: The current financial crisis is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing which will see the United States' economic and political clout declining over the next two decades, US intelligence predicted.

Its latest report, titled 'Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World', said the US dollar's role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a 'first among equals'.

It also warned that the world would grow more dangerous, with food and water scarce and weapons in abundance.

Released on Thursday, the report is meant to serve as a guidepost for the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama. Its central finding is that the US will remain the world's foremost economic and military force, but that its standing as an unrivalled superpower is likely to diminish as a 'global multipolar system' begins to emerge.

Dr Tom Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for Analysis, said there would be a 'diminished gap between the United States and everybody else...The unipolar moment is over'.

China stands to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other single country, and India will strive to represent one of the world's economic poles. How the world adjusts to their increased roles will be up to those two countries, the report said.

Japan could be caught between US and Chinese influence, while Russia could grow or stall, depending on economic decisions it makes. Brazil is poised to gain in influence and wealth. The report also identified three potential up-and-coming powers, all from the Muslim world - Indonesia, Turkey and Iran.

The overall result will leave 'less room for the US to call the shots', and even US military power will be limited by the growing use by others of irregular warfare tactics and the proliferation of long-range precision weapons.

The report - the US intelligence community's most comprehensive examination to date of long-term security issues - also warned of another possibly destabilising dynamic.

'The relative power of non-state actors - businesses, tribes, religious organisations and even criminal networks - will grow as these groups influence decisions on a widening range of social, economic and political issues,' the report said.

On terrorism, the report concluded that Al-Qaeda and other extremist groups face declining support across the Middle East and other Muslim nations, as they have alienated Muslim supporters with indiscriminate killing and inattention to the practical problems of poverty and education. But the document warned that terrorist organisations are likely to become more deadly because the spread of chemical and biological technologies 'will place some of the world's most dangerous capabilities within their reach'.

The report said Al-Qaeda is likely to pose a lasting threat to the US and other Western nations. But it cited a view that Al-Qaeda 'suffers from strategic weaknesses that could cause it to decay into marginality, perhaps shortening the lifespan of the Islamic terrorist wave'.

The report said global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy scarcity constraints may fuel conflict over resources. But global warming could be a boon to Russia. The warming earth will extend Russia and Canada's growing season and ease their access to northern oil fields, which will strengthen their economies.

A shift away from an oil-based energy system will be under way or complete by 2025, and better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power give the best opportunity for a quick and low-cost transition, the report said.

LOS ANGELES TIMES, REUTERS, ASSOCIATED PRESS, NEW YORK TIMES